The fall and rise of Taliban- Part 1

                      A significant number of Muslims across the world celebrated as the Taliban took over the Presidential palace in Kabul. Some quietly, some not so. I have deliberately used the adjective ‘significant’ here, since the real numbers would never be known openly. But enough to suggest that there are far many sympathizers of the Taliban globally apart from the Pakistani institution, spread far and wide from North America to Europe, Africa, South Asia and of course the middle east. Ofcourse not every Muslim is a supporter and there indeed are those other 'significant' who abhor the ideology of fundamentalism and extremism. Unfortunately they never seem to be on the winning side irrespective of the numbers. A vast majority of sympathizers do not endorse the Taliban way of life. They, nevertheless, are celebrating. There are two broad streams of thoughts, not necessarily distinct that find jubilation in the Taliban victory. One stream arises from the seeming dislike of the western world for meddling and messing up with the Islamic world. So, any such win is treated as a revenge against their atrocities and hence morally justified. The other is the belief in the eventual rise and Islamic takeover of the world (Shariah) which doesn’t need a moral justification. So yes- Islamists from diverse streams and especially fundamentalists are having a field day after the takeover. Something akin to 9/11 or the ascent of the ISIS. Not to mention the Pakistani leadership is in seventh heaven! It is my firm belief that this victory would lead to a fundamental shift in the world order in years to come -for better or for worse.  Only time will tell if this serves as a mega booster for Islamic terrorism or accelerates the process of its eventual demise.  

Well to their credit, the Taliban won – handsomely. That they would eventually capture Kabul was widely anticipated few months since US decision to withdraw. The fact that Kabul fell so early came as a surprise to many. A lot of chatter is being generated about the near surrender and debacle of institution called the Afghanistan Defense Force. The US had poured in 83 billion dollars to setup the Afghan National Defense force. Something that couldn’t hold fort against the Taliban onslaught for more than a fortnight. The speed at which the Taliban moved once the US forces began to return shows that they fully knew the strengths (or lack of) and capabilities of the Afghanistan army. A good use of propaganda machinery, leveraging the institutional weakness of the opponents, striking deals with local warlords coupled with sound strategy and of course the wisdom and intelligence of big brother Pakistan have played a major role in Taliban’s win. Not to mention, they do have the tacit backing of big powers – Russia and possibly China to be emboldened enough to capture Kabul without worrying about international ramifications.

There is a lot of anger against the USA for pulling out and especially the timing and manner of pullout. And yes, the US certainly takes its share or blame for the outcome. But is the US really to take the entire blame? Let’s look at the facts. First and foremost, the US defense forces must be congratulated for successfully keeping the Taliban at bay for 20 long years! How difficult a task it has been, could be gauged from the events of past couple of weeks. To control and maintain a distant territory amidst hostile surroundings and a failed nation state that plays both sides- is not an easy task. The US successfully managed to maintain considerable control over Afghanistan while its forces controlled the ground. However, as President Biden said, it was never America’s responsibility to defend Afghanistan. In his own words, American soldiers should not be fighting a war that the Afghans are not fighting for themselves. There never was and would have been a good time for retreat. The US entered Afghanistan since the then Taliban leadership was sheltering the Al Qaeda. With the then Taliban leadership toppled, and the Al Qaeda leadership eliminated, it was a matter of time before the US pulled the plug. It still dragged for another decade or more with consecutive presidents making clear the intent to withdraw but eventually dragging their feet. Many, especially in India are criticizing Biden for the decision citing his liberal credentials. However, the decision was made by Trump with Biden fixing a timeframe for withdrawal.  Irrespective of when the US withdrew, the outcome would have been what it is today. The sad part however is not one responsible power or set of powers stepped in to take responsibility when the US decided to move out. While it is prudent for every nation including India to take decisions in their national interests, it would be paradoxical to criticize the US when they do the same! However, as mentioned earlier, even if a coalition of forces had stepped in, the result would still have been the same, albeit a few years later. We will dwell more on the reasons and consequences in the next part of this writeup.

As an immediate after effect, Taliban ruled Afghanistan joins the axis of China, Pakistan with varying involvement of Russia, Iran, and Turkey- all of whom have stake in Afghanistan. As far as India is concerned, it is certainly a setback for the 20 plus years of strategic investment in a friendly country. While it will be prudent to maintain some level of diplomatic relations, the fact that Pakistan and China are deeply involved implies that India will remain out of the door for the near future. A setback indeed. The best the Indian leadership would do in the near term is to keep the Taliban quietly engaged and minimize the nuisance and wait for the tide to turn. Which it surely will. It’s a game of patience after all. The Pakistanis waited for 20 years. Now its our turn.

To be continued....

A journey

          

             I was a teenager when the Babri Masjid was demolished. The Ram Janmbhoomi moment had been gathering momentum in the days leading to this fateful event, especially after Mr Advani’s Rath Yatra. Like most other ‘ordinary’ Indians, and being a teen,I believed that all this was political gimmick and nothing would come out of it. The BJP and L.K Advani were the ‘rising star’ of Indian politics back then and it was obvious that they wanted to keep the pot boiling as a means to power-so I thought.  So when the news broke out on 6^th December 1992, it was met with shock and excitement. I remember us chanting Jai Shri Ram during one of our periods, only to be shut down by our teachers.  There were no 24X7 news channels back then. But of whatever we could see on television, the images of Kar Sevaks on top of the tomb still linger in my mind.  Personally, I was bewildered. On one side I felt a sense of gratification being a Hindu, followed by a subtle sense of guilt. I remember peeking at my Muslim friend while we were chanting Jai Shri Ram in the class and wondering what he must be thinking. I was also worried that this could bring irreversible changes to secular fabric of the country and the consequent dangers it would bestow (well that’s what the media would tell us back then!)  – Some of which did materialize by means of the riots that followed and subsequent Mumbai Bombings of March 1993. In general the next few years were marked by political turmoil, isolated violence and acts of terrorism on the pretext of avenging the demolition.

Subsequently the case went subjudice and lost steam. At times I felt it was a masterstroke by Narsimha Rao to end the ‘menace’ once and for all. Of course these were just my personal thoughtsJ. As years passed Ram Lalla only remained on the Manifesto of the Bhartiya Janata Party and the occasional calls for the temple during the Dussera Rally of the Sangh. I remember during the late 90s and early 2000s when one or the other new channel would remind us of the “nth anniversary of the demolition of the Babri Masjid”. Soon the anniversaries and the reminders vanished and Babri Masjid faded from public memory. The dust had settled and fortunately the so called ‘secular-fabric’ of the country was still intact, except on political battlegrounds. Until ten years back one could bet heavily on the fact that a Ram Mandir could never see the light of the day at the disputed site in Ayodhya given the pace at which the case proceeded in court and also a lack of political and religious consensus amongst the warring parties. Ironically another set of events unveiled a year before the demolition- the economic reforms, brought far more sweeping changes on the social, economic and political front in the years to come and Babri became a ‘thing of past’.

My individual viewpoints have also transformed alongside the struggle of the Ram temple. From an individualistic Hindu perspective of “Why is a temple needed when I can pray Ram at my home” and “Who cares if a certain Babar built something, after all he couldn’t destroy Hinduism in India” which I had developed during teens, I began to recognize the political need to maneuver the larger Hindu desire and the fact that social form of Hinduism does need a manifestation especially in the background of centuries of non-Hindu rule in the country. And what embodies that better than a temple for Ram Lalla at the place of his birth? All along, I also firmly felt that the welfare of modern Indian state was paramount even to the desire of its vast majority. In essence, it was an Individual journey from “my Ram” to “Our Ram”. Good sense prevailed and due to the maturity of all concerned parties AND the judiciousness of honorable Supreme court, we are to witness the foundation of a grand temple at Ayodhya. Today, 5^th August 2020 epitomizes fulfillment of five centuries of Hindu desire and decades of struggle. It is a moment of pride and happiness for those who batted for the temple for three decades and a joyous occasion for the Hindus across the globe.  Let this auspicious occasion also lead to a sense of brotherhood and harmony among all Indians and the world at large.

||Jai Shri Ram ||

Reverse Swing

                Each year, of course barring the ones when the relationship between the two neighbors is going through a good patch, June to September is the period when maximum number of terrorists try to infiltrate into India from Pakistan, actively aided by the Pakistani army. The idea is to cross the border and go incognito for the next few weeks until winter sets in and then foment trouble in the valley. It is very difficult to cross the border once winter sets in, particularly when it starts snowing. Understanding this, the Indian security forces are on high vigil during this period. There are a maximum number of cross border firings and a maximum number of terrorist encounters during the summer months. On the contrary, there is much less infiltration and cross border skirmishes during peak winter months. This year there was a noticeable reduction in infiltration attempts as claimed by the Indian army itself in July. One of the most important reasons supposedly was the sword of FTAF hanging over Pakistan’s head. Moreover the Indian security forces have been extremely successful in identifying and eliminating terrorists for the past few years and this year in particular. So arguably, Kashmir valley was enjoying one of the most peaceful phase in recent times. With the lower infiltration, the winter was also looking to be a rather peaceful one.

                Suddenly the government of India announced the abrogation of article 370 and all hell broke loose. We are now hearing about thousands of terrorists either having crossed the border or waiting to cross at the earliest opportunity. Moreover, with the G7 submit, UN General Assembly planned in August-September timeframe , it only meant that the government of India had to put in double the diplomatic effort to justify their action compared to what would have been required say in winter. So then the question is – Why did the government of India rush through the abrogation when the strategic time to do so would have been the months of winter? The winter session of parliament to be specific.  Make no mistake- The government did rush through the implementation. Although the high level contours of the plan were in place long before, the actual implementation was a hush hush affair starting probably immediately after the new government took office or sometime around end of June/early July. This was clear from the fact that the Amaranth yatri’s and tourists were rushed back in a matter of days. Besides additional forces were deployed in an expedited manner. For the level of secrecy that this kind of operation demands, and what the government maintained, exposing the rapid deployment of security forces was a risky move. They could have very well handled it in a very phased and prolonged manner to avoid suspicion. So the question basically is – Why did the government choose this time?

                For that one has to look westwards. The US has been in negotiations with the Taliban for the past few months and was seen to be inching closer to a deal. Of course the POTUS has domestic compulsions to pull back troops from Afghanistan before 2020 which only meant that the US representative Zalmay Khalizad would aggressively try to broker a deal to meet the end. One of the biggest losers of such a so called peace deal was India. India has consistently maintained the stance that there cannot be a peace deal with Taliban and that such a deal cannot be brokered without the involvement of the Afghan government. Given that India has good relations with the Afghan government meant that India would have stake and levers in such negotiation attempts. However Pakistan, which was playing its cards close to the chest, successfully managed to keep the Afghan government and thereby India off the table. A return of Taliban to the center of power in Afghanistan spelt doom for India’s policy. For one, they would lose all the lever and goodwill earned by two decades of hard work and contribution to the Afghan society. Secondly, that would expand the strategic depth of Pakistan’s influence and consequently reduce India’s traction across the region. Thirdly, there were all indications that Pakistan would use their hold over the Taliban and the newfound proximity to the western powers, to get Kashmir back in focus. This was evident from Trump’s ‘offer’ of mediation in Kashmir.  Given the exchange of tweets between Trump and Imran Khan earlier this year, a visit by the Pakistan Prime Minister to the US was deemed impossible in the first place, forget about the POTUS ‘mediating’ in Kashmir. But within a matter of months, the scenario had changed. Considering the possibility of a power transfer to Taliban, the Pakistani establishment would have been free to focus on Kashmir and foment more trouble. Add to this the fact that China would take over as the president of FTAF in October which makes things easier for Pakistan. So things were about to turn good for Pakistan in coming months. The lull in infiltration during summers was not due to fear of reprisal but more a silence before the storm.    

                While Modi was combing the nation with his rallies, the Indian strategic community and spy agencies were keeping a close watch on the events in Doha, Islamabad and Washington DC. The naming of Masood Azar as a global terrorist by the UNSC was pursued as a victory by many in India (and appropriately used by the ruling party to show ‘Modi’ power), a few of our strategic brains were bewildered by China’s move, particularly at the time when elections were being held in India, which meant, at least in theory there could be an alternate government in India. They soon realized that it was a ploy to keep the Indians occupied in the false sense of victory and keep them unwary. As the summers approached, the Doha negotiations gathered momentum. Meanwhile other nations like Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey too started actively involving themselves in different format of negotiations, obviously to pick their share of pie from the war ravaged nation. All, except India. In ironical, but unsurprising turn of events, one of the biggest benefactor of the Afghan people since past two decades was turning out to be one of the biggest losers in the process – strategically, diplomatically and economically. Besides, a deal with Taliban would not only expel India out of Afghanistan, it would also bring Pakistan out of the global diplomatic isolation that had been a result of a carefully crafted narrative by the Indian think tank.

Something had to be done –fast

                The Indians swung into action. The move was blasphemous and diplomatically untenable. But then diplomacy is the art of making the impossible –possible. Fortunately, the government had a renewed and stronger mandate which meant that things could be taken care on the domestic front. Newer players in the upper house meant that there was room for such a move. The government moved ahead and abrogated Article 370 along with creation of two union territories. Pakistan was caught by surprise and understandably furious. Therein started the diplomatic duel between the two and China unfortunately (I confidently say it was an unfortunate step which they would regret soon) played a wrong move by attempting to take the issue to the UN. The Indians were swift to thwart such a move and quickly went on offensive. Between the PM, the FM, the RM, the President and the NSA they would have connected with the leadership of at least over a hundred countries in a span of two to three weeks. Meanwhile the security forces were doing a good job at keeping the valley mostly free of violence. This ensured that barring the usual sermons about human rights, there was nothing much to point fingers to. Also the narrative of ‘right to life overrides others’ helped justify the restrictions which were being phased out. All along, the Pakistanis were trying all the tricks of the trade to get world attention. Unable to foment trouble in Kashmir, they escalated violence in Afghanistan, out of frustration, to get the US to influence India. And then the unthinkable happened- The US called off the negotiations with Taliban.  The abrogation, while an accomplishment in itself, was timed to thwart the Taliban deal and the Indians seem to have succeeded in the same. It would be overzealous to think that the Indian move alone was responsible for calling off the Taliban talks, but certainly it would have played a significant role in rattling the Pakistani think tank.  They say, Diplomacy neither has a beginning nor an end. So there may still be attempts to review the Taliban talks overtly or covertly. But for now its

India -1

Pakistan- zero

Breaking of 370- The inside story

               Narendra Modi and his team surely know the art of keeping secrets and at times building the necessary suspense. Be it the surprise visit to Pakistan in Dec 2015 or the famous ‘Mitron’ of 8^th Nov 2016, Modi has consistently delivered on his surprises! Not to mention the surgical strikes and then again the air strikes thereby doing a ‘gotcha’ to Pakistan not once, but twice! If somebody were to believe that Modi is good as a T20 or a one day player, he demonstrated otherwise by playing a patient and long drawn game finally resulting in virtual decimation of Article 370. By now it’s in public domain how the whole thing started with BJP forming a coalition government with the PDP and then withdrawing support at an ‘opportune’ time in June 2018. After this any attempts to form a government were ‘sabotaged’ leading to a Governor’s rule. The state elections were not conducted alongside the Lok Sabha elections with specific purpose –as we know now. The action plan was ready well before the commencement of election process in Feb 2019 and all the players swung into action right after the government took charge in May 2019. From that point on, all the administrative process was completed in expeditious manner with utmost secrecy such that nobody had a wimp of what was about to come till the very last moment.

                Of course, the most important aspect of this plan was the ‘how’- the legal aspect. For long it was believed that fiddling with Article 370 was almost impossible for 2 reasons – 1. Abrogation of article 370 required changes to the constitution – an area too sensitive for any political party to venture 2.  Any changes to Article 370 need to be approved by the Legislative assembly (Constituent Assembly in the original article). Given the composition of J&K assembly this was virtually impossible to achieve. Such was the confidence that it led to a prominent leader from the state arrogantly claiming that Modi cannot touch article 370 even if he came to power 10 times!  Well, he was soon to be proved wrong. The legal team behind this plan indeed outsmarted everyone. They beat the article by using one of the clauses in the article. So without the need to abrogate, article 370 was rendered defunct. This will surely be challenged in the courts. But for now, there doesn’t seem anything illegal in it.

                However, for all the visible perfection and secrecy that the government demonstrated in planning and executing this, there’s more than what meets the public eye. I base this statement on three or four aspects that were very noticeable. Firstly, the widely believed theory that the regional leadership of J&K – namely the Abdullah’s and the Mufti’s were taken by surprise may be wrong. If one looks at the sequence of events, namely the meeting of the Abdullah’s with the PM couple of days before the unfolding of events in parliament, the all party meeting in Srinagar on the day prior, there definitely seem to be something fishy. Firstly, why would the Abdullah’s want to meet the PM knowing that the massive troop buildup was for some ‘not so desirable’ reasons? Convincing or requesting the PM? Are you kidding? Secondly, why would the PM even grant them audience?  Thirdly, if the government could put the leaders under detention from Sunday mid-night, why not a few hours earlier so as to prevent the all party meeting? Aren’t these leaders threat enough that they were put under detention from Sunday night? So why allow the meeting? Also if we closely look at the tweets, it is very surprising that the leaders from the valley almost knew that something terrible was to happen and they appeal for peace. Assuming that they may have twitted due to the ongoing troop buildup, then it’s too much of a coincidence to appeal for peace (read the tweets from Sunday), a day before the motion was to be moved in Rajya Sabha.  After Omar twitted that he is likely to be placed under house arrest, he was able to tweet 6-7 times. Then there was silence for 2 days and now suddenly he is able to tweet again on 7^th August. Any government and especially Modi surely knows the power of social media. If they wanted to arrest or detain the leaders from valley, there surely would have been better ways to prevent social media communication and catch the leaders by surprise. But that wasn’t the case. This points to a very strong possibility that the leadership from the valley was informed prior-at least a few days, to the bill being taken up in parliament, and they were either aligned or made to fall in line. Everything else was a hogwash. The leaders were detained and they continue to oppose, to save their political image and Shah kept cursing the dynasties to justify the dilution of Article 370. As someone would say – “Saab mile hue Hain ji!” – This time for a good reason of course!

                Secondly, I was keenly watching the proceedings in Rajya Sabha on Monday. There certainly was turbulence when Shah introduced the bill. But what was surprising, was the speed at which various political parties were able to quickly decide on their position –whether to support, oppose or walkout! Normally, with a reasonable majority, any bill would take 2-3 days at a minimum to be passed by either house. And this is when there is a prior information of the bill being introduced, giving political parties sufficient time to make up their mind. And here we have an extremely important bill being introduced at 11 am and the parties spell out their stance around 12 noon! Doesn’t that sound fishy? I mean really! I would still have not thought about it if it were introduced in Lok Sabha. But Rajya Sabha? Agreed that the government is in a much better state than it was earlier, in terms of numbers and the parties supporting them. But still they don’t have a majority and are dependent on non NDA parties. So to introduce such a bill in Rajya Sabha without any prior intimation was a huge gamble. So on one side, you have a government that plays this gamble and on the other side we have almost all the political parties taking their stance – all in matter of few hours while the house is in session and the government winning 120 – 62! A fairy tale indeed! If you still don’t believe, check this – BSP supporting, TMC and NCP abstaining! I mean what made them take these decisions? In reality, it is highly likely that the leadership of most parties were informed and taken into confidence. Yes, those who wanted to oppose, did end up opposing. But only after the government ensuring that they had enough numbers to take this through. At a minimum the government would have reached out to the key leaders who played an instrumental role in supporting or abstaining! Again, for all the criticism that the government is facing about arbitrary decision making, this may have been more inclusive that what is made out to be. This is a speculation of course, but you never know!

                Thirdly, and this may not be surprising, the government had indicated and or briefed all the major global powers about the impeding resolution. This is evident from the muted responses from various countries. While it is being told publicly that the envoys were told after the fact, that it was a bill to improve the governance and facilitate development in the state, nobody is going to believe that a massive troop buildup is needed for the same! I mean they surely are more intelligent than what the statements from MEA make them to be! So most definitely, the key international players were taken into confidence and any post facto Pakistani move taken into equation. In fact I have a very weird feeling that the whole ‘Kashmir mediation’ episode was scripted to divert attention and Pakistan nicely played into it. This does sound preposterous, but I won’t discount the theory given the timing. So while one thought process is that the mediation offer and the Taliban talk may have prompted the move, the other possibility is that the mediation story itself was part of the whole plan. Whether China was in the list of the select countries is a matter of speculation.

                Net net, in all likelihood this was a much more inclusive and coordinated effort than what is made out to be. But we will never know what went on behind those closed doors! – And for good reasons. Lastly, for all those who claim that they would have supported the move but after taking all stakeholders into confidence – aka, the JK assembly approving such a bill, how naïve are we? With 46 seats for the Kashmir valley out of 87, this was never a possibility since nobody would dare to support such a bill in assembly. Lastly, whether the changes to Article 370 would bring the intended results? There’s no quick answer. But one thing is certainly true – You cannot continue to do same things and expect different results.

2019 - The end game

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Atal Kalam

                Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s demise and the Kerala floods have hogged the limelight last week, from news studios to office cafeteria and social parties- and understandably so. One gives us a glimpse of the terrible consequences of human fallacy with nature, while the other gave hope by the very fact that such a soul existed among us. For a dinner at a friend’s house the discussions inevitably turned to Vajpayee’s death. Our friend, who’s not into politics (or probably not as much as I believe I am!) remarked “Well I felt sad on his death. But I was more saddened when Dr. Kalam passed away”. This was an innocent and honest statement coming from a friend. I nodded halfheartedly and we continued with other discussions. Halfheartedly because –although I respected Kalam sir and was aggrieved at his demise as much as any patriotic Indian would, the sheer thought of comparing them disturbed me. Besides this was a very dangerous territory to venture into! I mean, discounting the extreme (and perhaps flawed) political ideologies, who in their right mind would disregard the contribution of either of these men?  Still, the question got me thinking over the rest of the evening. Whose death aggrieved me more? In other words, whose contribution do I acknowledge the most?

                At the outset, there seemed to be little common ground except perhaps for the popularity they enjoyed and their vision of India. One was a scientist to the core while other was a hardcore politician and a poet. Apart from his oratory par excellence and depth of poetry, Vajpayee was a metaphor for ‘good politics’. Everything that can be good in a democracy. Running a coalition of twenty odd parties successfully for five years, he gave us the confidence that a non-congress government could indeed survive, thereby deepening the democratic roots in this country. A statesman par excellence, he steered the country out of complex economic and strategic challenges leading to emergence of a stronger India. Dr Kalam on the other hand was an out and out technology man with significant contributions to the Indian space and missile program, making the country more self-reliant and militarily stronger. His vision, simplistic living and love for the nation was unparalleled. A sage whose purpose in life was devotion to the nation. In terms of ‘popularity charts’, Dr Kalam might win hands down. Primarily because he was ‘apolitical’ and we Indians were moved by his simplistic living, struggles in life and his vision for the country. Vajpayee on the other hand was a politician and that too from the BJP- a party still untouchable to many Indians. Besides few understand the nuances of politics and International affairs to give him credit.

Why then was I in the dilemma?

                At the core of this seemingly unrelated comparison lies the core question- Who has contributed more to the evolution of mankind- Scientists or statesmen? I must say that for the five thousand years or a little more of known history, we have been a bit unkind to the men of science, not calling out or lauding their contributions exclusively. Given that the human race has continuously evolved should be attributed to the millions of scientific minds who gave the ‘next’ breakthrough all these centuries. Unfortunately the credit of the technological advances have more often been attributed to regimes, with rare mention of individuals-with a few exceptions ofcourse. However the numbers are miniscule given the thousands of years of history. Compare this against the vast history of rulers and aggressors whose ‘achievements’ have been listed at greater lengths. One could attribute this to the social dynamics of the respective era where the King ‘had’ to be the tallest being of all of his subjects. It’s only since the past century and a half that the world has started taking note of scientists and Engineers- attributing a ‘face’ to the great discoveries, inventions and engineering feats. Of course, technological advancements have led to more wars and destruction of mankind. But here as well, the politicians and rulers are as guilty (or tad more) as the technologists. One must also not forget the fact that most of these scientists were employed and nurtured by the ruling class, not always for reasons of war. So in a sense the ruling class was equally responsible for the technological evolution – good or bad.In other words they have always been ‘hand in glove’!

           Coming back to the Vajpayee-Kalam argument, as I said both were men of exceptional vision and commitment. Kalam-the thinker gave us a vision of developed India and left it to likes of Vajpayee (and his brethren) to implement it, while Vajpayee gave us a roadmap for a strong and developed India, and left it to the comrades of Kalam to execute the same! This relationship can best be exemplified by the history of Pokhran. Kalam wanted the bomb for a stronger India and it was Vajpayee who ordered the tests, executed with perfection by Kalam and the team! So the discussion about Kalam and Vajpayee is not ‘apples and oranges’ or 'Kohli vs Smith' but more like what makes a good ‘chai’! A good blend of tea leaves brewed to perfection? Or the right amount of milk and sugar? One could still live without the other and add value .But it’s the right mix of both that wakes you up! Add a little ginger from me and you are ready to roll!

I imaging them discussing over a cup of tea in heaven and wondering ‘What next’? J

P.S – Please contribute to the Kerala relief fund if you have not already done so.

Facade

                Indian security forces have neutralized 167 terrorists so far this year-highest in years. In fact an average of one terrorist has been killed since May this year. As Indians we are indeed proud of this achievement - barring the ‘Azaadi brigade’ of course. But going beyond the nationalistic zeal, it is by all means a commendable achievement by a very professional and competent force. The game between terrorists/extremists and security forces is a very tricky one.  On one hand the forces seem to have a numeric advantage. But terrorists can mix up with the local populace (and not just in J&K but even elsewhere) making it difficult to track them. To further complicate, the forces have hundreds of installations to protect whereas the terrorists just need to strike one to prove a point. This is just a glimpse of how heavily skewed the game is in favor of the terrorists/ultras. Local support makes it much more complicated.

                Since Dec 2014, India has adopted a ‘two for a bullet’ approach vis-à-vis Pakistan. Every LOC violation has met a heavy response from India. But that did not deter the enemy enough. They responded with Pathankot and later Uri.  The Surgical strikes were successful and very much required to boost morale of the forces, besides delivering a strong message to Pakistan. But frankly speaking such strikes are high on rhetoric but low on value. In other words, you cannot expect the Para Commandos to launch such strikes every now and then to eliminate 25-50 militants. The political and diplomatic cost of failure is too high. Indian establishment understood this too well and seem to have reworked their approach. The results are for everybody to see. In the past, we have seen missions and operations to neutralize specific terrorists. But this is the first time since the 90s that such a prolonged operation has been taken up which has almost wiped up the entire leadership. The Intelligence gathering and coordination between various agencies is simply amazing! It almost looks like a video game! A new one comes up and there you go-BOOM !

                This government is known for using facades to hide their real act/motives. We particularly witnessed this after the Uri attacks when the Government keep everybody busy thinking there would be a diplomatic response like reviewing the Indus Water treaty, while they actually launched the surgical strikes.  Well- Now it looks like the surgical strikes actually were a façade! They helped calm the initial domestic discontent giving the forces time to actually plan and carry out their mission! So the response to Uri and Pathankot is not the surgical strikes, but what’s been going on for past six months! And if the success rate is any indicator, this is just the beginning! To an extent that the IG of Kashmir openly jokes that nobody is now ready to take up the mantle of LET!!.

                So what does it all mean? Will this bring peace? No. Will it reduce terrorist attacks? Probably not in a long term. Will it solve the Kashmir problem? Of course not! But then it was never about peace or freedom in the first place. One would have been stupid enough to expect ‘freedom’ for Kashmir with such terrorist attacks just as it is stupid to expect peace with elimination of terrorists. It’s a game the sleuths play to establish superiority.  This game can only be finished on the negotiating table with the political leadership involved.

 Till that happens? The game’s on!!