Facade

                Indian security forces have neutralized 167 terrorists so far this year-highest in years. In fact an average of one terrorist has been killed since May this year. As Indians we are indeed proud of this achievement - barring the ‘Azaadi brigade’ of course. But going beyond the nationalistic zeal, it is by all means a commendable achievement by a very professional and competent force. The game between terrorists/extremists and security forces is a very tricky one.  On one hand the forces seem to have a numeric advantage. But terrorists can mix up with the local populace (and not just in J&K but even elsewhere) making it difficult to track them. To further complicate, the forces have hundreds of installations to protect whereas the terrorists just need to strike one to prove a point. This is just a glimpse of how heavily skewed the game is in favor of the terrorists/ultras. Local support makes it much more complicated.

                Since Dec 2014, India has adopted a ‘two for a bullet’ approach vis-à-vis Pakistan. Every LOC violation has met a heavy response from India. But that did not deter the enemy enough. They responded with Pathankot and later Uri.  The Surgical strikes were successful and very much required to boost morale of the forces, besides delivering a strong message to Pakistan. But frankly speaking such strikes are high on rhetoric but low on value. In other words, you cannot expect the Para Commandos to launch such strikes every now and then to eliminate 25-50 militants. The political and diplomatic cost of failure is too high. Indian establishment understood this too well and seem to have reworked their approach. The results are for everybody to see. In the past, we have seen missions and operations to neutralize specific terrorists. But this is the first time since the 90s that such a prolonged operation has been taken up which has almost wiped up the entire leadership. The Intelligence gathering and coordination between various agencies is simply amazing! It almost looks like a video game! A new one comes up and there you go-BOOM !

                This government is known for using facades to hide their real act/motives. We particularly witnessed this after the Uri attacks when the Government keep everybody busy thinking there would be a diplomatic response like reviewing the Indus Water treaty, while they actually launched the surgical strikes.  Well- Now it looks like the surgical strikes actually were a façade! They helped calm the initial domestic discontent giving the forces time to actually plan and carry out their mission! So the response to Uri and Pathankot is not the surgical strikes, but what’s been going on for past six months! And if the success rate is any indicator, this is just the beginning! To an extent that the IG of Kashmir openly jokes that nobody is now ready to take up the mantle of LET!!.

                So what does it all mean? Will this bring peace? No. Will it reduce terrorist attacks? Probably not in a long term. Will it solve the Kashmir problem? Of course not! But then it was never about peace or freedom in the first place. One would have been stupid enough to expect ‘freedom’ for Kashmir with such terrorist attacks just as it is stupid to expect peace with elimination of terrorists. It’s a game the sleuths play to establish superiority.  This game can only be finished on the negotiating table with the political leadership involved.

 Till that happens? The game’s on!!

Indo-Pak : The broken narrative

Every object continues in state of ‘rest or motion ‘unless a force acts on it- so we were taught. In simplistic terms, everything happens for a reason. If we broaden the scope of this statement from physics to a universal one, it would still hold true. ‘Everything happens for a reason’ .It’s just that we don’t happen to know the reason or at times cannot comprehend it.   The converse also is true –
‘Nothing happens without a reason!’
I am pretty sure, that apart from physicists, astronomers, cosmologists, politicians even foreign policy pundits must believe and accept this simple but powerful fact. I for sure have always believed in this. A small error or distraction in an otherwise coherent story says a lot and minutely observing such distractions can tell you if things have changed, if not necessarily, what has changed. Last year when there was a lot of bonhomie between the PMs of India and Pakistan (and I am stopping short of calling that bonhomie between the two countries), I had written about the same. The story was still incoherent but it seemed to be headed in a direction. At least peace seemed to be the ultimate objective.
A lot has happened since then. There have been NSA level talks albeit a surprise meeting at a ‘third country’ to avoid Media, Foreign secretary level talks, a surprise visit by the Indian PM for PM Sharif’s grand daughter’s wedding eve and the Pathankot terror attacks.  Surprisingly India acted very maturely even after the attacks and the official statement specifically talked about terror groups within Pakistan without directly blaming the Pakistan Govt. India even facilitated the visit of the investigative team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot and sought reciprocity, which was denied. That was like early this year. Things seem to have nosedived south since then. To the extent that currently the relations between India and Pakistan are at one of their lowest points in recent years.  The India PM has openly mention Baluchistan (more about that in a while) and Pakistan seems to be leaving no tables unturned to rake up and exploit the Kashmir unrest, while supporting it by all means.  My earlier post gives a perspective and reasons for the sudden surge in violence.
However, thinking further on this, it doesn’t seem to be a story started by the killing of Burhan Wani, fuelled by Pakistan and possibly China. So I may have been wrong in localizing it.  Although event starting with the killing of Wani till the current escalations may have been prompted by the NSG- South China sea factors, it looks like the whole narrative was scripted differently , the contours of which are coming out in open now.
Let’s start with the last major event in the series. The Indian PM mentioned Baluchistan in his Independence Day speech.  Apart from the popularity it got, the mention was a major foreign policy statement.  India had so far never even acknowledged any form of (moral, financial or otherwise) support for the Baloch moment, let alone any official statement.  While it was an unofficial ‘open’ secret that Indians were sympathetic to the Baloch cause, it was never a public statement. From that point to a state where the Indian PM mentions it in his I-day speech is definitely a big leap. Although, the PM merely ‘thanked’ the Baloch people for wishes, the B-word itself ruffled feathers within Pakistan and even China.  Now, the PM would not have done so without consulting all the relevant stakeholders.  For one, India may have developed enough ‘deep assets’ in the Baloch region. Earlier statements from the NSA seem to hint towards that direction. The arrest of an ‘Indian agent’ from Baluchistan also adds credence to the story. Whether the person was an Indian agent and if he was truly arrested from Baluchistan are matters left unanswered. But then even assuming that he was neither, there must be a ‘reason’ why Pakistan publicly exposed an Indian agent and that too accusing him of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan. And obviously to get things to a state where we can publicly espouse the cause takes good amount of time and money to build resources.  The ground work for this must have been going on for months and possibly years. It may not be a ‘Modi phenomenon’, but promoted by earlier governments as well. Net Net, the PMs Mention, although may have been camouflaged as a reaction to the Kashmir unrest, certainly is part of another narrative that was being developed all along. It is possible that the Indian side got enough confidence and also thought that the timing was ripe to go public.
It’s kind of a reversal in the chicken-egg story and may partly explain the sudden disruption since March –April. So was India politically and otherwise preparing for a ‘big push’ on Baluchistan?  Was it something that Pakistan realized (well that country doesn’t have a moral conscience, so we shouldn’t feel guilty –you know!) and led to the slump in relations? Instead of “India mentioning Baluchistan because of Kashmir unrest “, could the story possibly be “Pakistan causing unrest in Kashmir in retaliation to India’s grand design in Baluchistan “?  Nobody knows for a fact. But cannot be ruled out. To me, it kind of fits into the broken narrative –somehow.
Whether, if at all, India achieves any real geographical or political advantage by its involvement in Baluchistan, is a separate topic, which I will dwell upon later. It’s the beginning of a long drawn battle. I am pretty sure that neither Pakistan nor China are going to let us proceed with any sort of design , that easily .But for now, it suffices to say that it has ruffled enough feathers for both of our neighbors. That India may have been involved, was never hidden from the Chinese. But what would come as a surprise is – What is that prized possession that gave enough guts to the Indian leadership to make it public!  And why now!
So where will this really end? Another bloody spate of violence that both countries will have to experience? Another 'narrative' where people and issues are used as pawns to settle scores ?Or is it the will of the almighty to enable create circumstances so that the humans on both sides see rational and try to strive for peace? After all questions need to be answered in the same language to complete the test!
I don’t know the answer. But what I do know is –
Nothing happens without a reason!!