Every object continues in state of ‘rest or motion ‘unless a force acts on it- so we were taught. In simplistic terms, everything happens for a reason. If we broaden the scope of this statement from physics to a universal one, it would still hold true. ‘Everything happens for a reason’ .It’s just that we don’t happen to know the reason or at times cannot comprehend it. The converse also is true –
‘Nothing happens without a reason!’
I am pretty sure, that apart from physicists, astronomers, cosmologists, politicians even foreign policy pundits must believe and accept this simple but powerful fact. I for sure have always believed in this. A small error or distraction in an otherwise coherent story says a lot and minutely observing such distractions can tell you if things have changed, if not necessarily, what has changed. Last year when there was a lot of bonhomie between the PMs of India and Pakistan (and I am stopping short of calling that bonhomie between the two countries), I had written about the same. The story was still incoherent but it seemed to be headed in a direction. At least peace seemed to be the ultimate objective.
A lot has happened since then. There have been NSA level talks albeit a surprise meeting at a ‘third country’ to avoid Media, Foreign secretary level talks, a surprise visit by the Indian PM for PM Sharif’s grand daughter’s wedding eve and the Pathankot terror attacks. Surprisingly India acted very maturely even after the attacks and the official statement specifically talked about terror groups within Pakistan without directly blaming the Pakistan Govt. India even facilitated the visit of the investigative team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot and sought reciprocity, which was denied. That was like early this year. Things seem to have nosedived south since then. To the extent that currently the relations between India and Pakistan are at one of their lowest points in recent years. The India PM has openly mention Baluchistan (more about that in a while) and Pakistan seems to be leaving no tables unturned to rake up and exploit the Kashmir unrest, while supporting it by all means. My earlier post gives a perspective and reasons for the sudden surge in violence.
However, thinking further on this, it doesn’t seem to be a story started by the killing of Burhan Wani, fuelled by Pakistan and possibly China. So I may have been wrong in localizing it. Although event starting with the killing of Wani till the current escalations may have been prompted by the NSG- South China sea factors, it looks like the whole narrative was scripted differently , the contours of which are coming out in open now.
Let’s start with the last major event in the series. The Indian PM mentioned Baluchistan in his Independence Day speech. Apart from the popularity it got, the mention was a major foreign policy statement. India had so far never even acknowledged any form of (moral, financial or otherwise) support for the Baloch moment, let alone any official statement. While it was an unofficial ‘open’ secret that Indians were sympathetic to the Baloch cause, it was never a public statement. From that point to a state where the Indian PM mentions it in his I-day speech is definitely a big leap. Although, the PM merely ‘thanked’ the Baloch people for wishes, the B-word itself ruffled feathers within Pakistan and even China. Now, the PM would not have done so without consulting all the relevant stakeholders. For one, India may have developed enough ‘deep assets’ in the Baloch region. Earlier statements from the NSA seem to hint towards that direction. The arrest of an ‘Indian agent’ from Baluchistan also adds credence to the story. Whether the person was an Indian agent and if he was truly arrested from Baluchistan are matters left unanswered. But then even assuming that he was neither, there must be a ‘reason’ why Pakistan publicly exposed an Indian agent and that too accusing him of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan. And obviously to get things to a state where we can publicly espouse the cause takes good amount of time and money to build resources. The ground work for this must have been going on for months and possibly years. It may not be a ‘Modi phenomenon’, but promoted by earlier governments as well. Net Net, the PMs Mention, although may have been camouflaged as a reaction to the Kashmir unrest, certainly is part of another narrative that was being developed all along. It is possible that the Indian side got enough confidence and also thought that the timing was ripe to go public.
It’s kind of a reversal in the chicken-egg story and may partly explain the sudden disruption since March –April. So was India politically and otherwise preparing for a ‘big push’ on Baluchistan? Was it something that Pakistan realized (well that country doesn’t have a moral conscience, so we shouldn’t feel guilty –you know!) and led to the slump in relations? Instead of “India mentioning Baluchistan because of Kashmir unrest “, could the story possibly be “Pakistan causing unrest in Kashmir in retaliation to India’s grand design in Baluchistan “? Nobody knows for a fact. But cannot be ruled out. To me, it kind of fits into the broken narrative –somehow.
Whether, if at all, India achieves any real geographical or political advantage by its involvement in Baluchistan, is a separate topic, which I will dwell upon later. It’s the beginning of a long drawn battle. I am pretty sure that neither Pakistan nor China are going to let us proceed with any sort of design , that easily .But for now, it suffices to say that it has ruffled enough feathers for both of our neighbors. That India may have been involved, was never hidden from the Chinese. But what would come as a surprise is – What is that prized possession that gave enough guts to the Indian leadership to make it public! And why now!
So where will this really end? Another bloody spate of violence that both countries will have to experience? Another 'narrative' where people and issues are used as pawns to settle scores ?Or is it the will of the almighty to enable create circumstances so that the humans on both sides see rational and try to strive for peace? After all questions need to be answered in the same language to complete the test!
I don’t know the answer. But what I do know is –
Nothing happens without a reason!!
‘Nothing happens without a reason!’
I am pretty sure, that apart from physicists, astronomers, cosmologists, politicians even foreign policy pundits must believe and accept this simple but powerful fact. I for sure have always believed in this. A small error or distraction in an otherwise coherent story says a lot and minutely observing such distractions can tell you if things have changed, if not necessarily, what has changed. Last year when there was a lot of bonhomie between the PMs of India and Pakistan (and I am stopping short of calling that bonhomie between the two countries), I had written about the same. The story was still incoherent but it seemed to be headed in a direction. At least peace seemed to be the ultimate objective.
A lot has happened since then. There have been NSA level talks albeit a surprise meeting at a ‘third country’ to avoid Media, Foreign secretary level talks, a surprise visit by the Indian PM for PM Sharif’s grand daughter’s wedding eve and the Pathankot terror attacks. Surprisingly India acted very maturely even after the attacks and the official statement specifically talked about terror groups within Pakistan without directly blaming the Pakistan Govt. India even facilitated the visit of the investigative team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot and sought reciprocity, which was denied. That was like early this year. Things seem to have nosedived south since then. To the extent that currently the relations between India and Pakistan are at one of their lowest points in recent years. The India PM has openly mention Baluchistan (more about that in a while) and Pakistan seems to be leaving no tables unturned to rake up and exploit the Kashmir unrest, while supporting it by all means. My earlier post gives a perspective and reasons for the sudden surge in violence.
However, thinking further on this, it doesn’t seem to be a story started by the killing of Burhan Wani, fuelled by Pakistan and possibly China. So I may have been wrong in localizing it. Although event starting with the killing of Wani till the current escalations may have been prompted by the NSG- South China sea factors, it looks like the whole narrative was scripted differently , the contours of which are coming out in open now.
Let’s start with the last major event in the series. The Indian PM mentioned Baluchistan in his Independence Day speech. Apart from the popularity it got, the mention was a major foreign policy statement. India had so far never even acknowledged any form of (moral, financial or otherwise) support for the Baloch moment, let alone any official statement. While it was an unofficial ‘open’ secret that Indians were sympathetic to the Baloch cause, it was never a public statement. From that point to a state where the Indian PM mentions it in his I-day speech is definitely a big leap. Although, the PM merely ‘thanked’ the Baloch people for wishes, the B-word itself ruffled feathers within Pakistan and even China. Now, the PM would not have done so without consulting all the relevant stakeholders. For one, India may have developed enough ‘deep assets’ in the Baloch region. Earlier statements from the NSA seem to hint towards that direction. The arrest of an ‘Indian agent’ from Baluchistan also adds credence to the story. Whether the person was an Indian agent and if he was truly arrested from Baluchistan are matters left unanswered. But then even assuming that he was neither, there must be a ‘reason’ why Pakistan publicly exposed an Indian agent and that too accusing him of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan. And obviously to get things to a state where we can publicly espouse the cause takes good amount of time and money to build resources. The ground work for this must have been going on for months and possibly years. It may not be a ‘Modi phenomenon’, but promoted by earlier governments as well. Net Net, the PMs Mention, although may have been camouflaged as a reaction to the Kashmir unrest, certainly is part of another narrative that was being developed all along. It is possible that the Indian side got enough confidence and also thought that the timing was ripe to go public.
It’s kind of a reversal in the chicken-egg story and may partly explain the sudden disruption since March –April. So was India politically and otherwise preparing for a ‘big push’ on Baluchistan? Was it something that Pakistan realized (well that country doesn’t have a moral conscience, so we shouldn’t feel guilty –you know!) and led to the slump in relations? Instead of “India mentioning Baluchistan because of Kashmir unrest “, could the story possibly be “Pakistan causing unrest in Kashmir in retaliation to India’s grand design in Baluchistan “? Nobody knows for a fact. But cannot be ruled out. To me, it kind of fits into the broken narrative –somehow.
Whether, if at all, India achieves any real geographical or political advantage by its involvement in Baluchistan, is a separate topic, which I will dwell upon later. It’s the beginning of a long drawn battle. I am pretty sure that neither Pakistan nor China are going to let us proceed with any sort of design , that easily .But for now, it suffices to say that it has ruffled enough feathers for both of our neighbors. That India may have been involved, was never hidden from the Chinese. But what would come as a surprise is – What is that prized possession that gave enough guts to the Indian leadership to make it public! And why now!
So where will this really end? Another bloody spate of violence that both countries will have to experience? Another 'narrative' where people and issues are used as pawns to settle scores ?Or is it the will of the almighty to enable create circumstances so that the humans on both sides see rational and try to strive for peace? After all questions need to be answered in the same language to complete the test!
I don’t know the answer. But what I do know is –
Nothing happens without a reason!!
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