Facade

                Indian security forces have neutralized 167 terrorists so far this year-highest in years. In fact an average of one terrorist has been killed since May this year. As Indians we are indeed proud of this achievement - barring the ‘Azaadi brigade’ of course. But going beyond the nationalistic zeal, it is by all means a commendable achievement by a very professional and competent force. The game between terrorists/extremists and security forces is a very tricky one.  On one hand the forces seem to have a numeric advantage. But terrorists can mix up with the local populace (and not just in J&K but even elsewhere) making it difficult to track them. To further complicate, the forces have hundreds of installations to protect whereas the terrorists just need to strike one to prove a point. This is just a glimpse of how heavily skewed the game is in favor of the terrorists/ultras. Local support makes it much more complicated.

                Since Dec 2014, India has adopted a ‘two for a bullet’ approach vis-à-vis Pakistan. Every LOC violation has met a heavy response from India. But that did not deter the enemy enough. They responded with Pathankot and later Uri.  The Surgical strikes were successful and very much required to boost morale of the forces, besides delivering a strong message to Pakistan. But frankly speaking such strikes are high on rhetoric but low on value. In other words, you cannot expect the Para Commandos to launch such strikes every now and then to eliminate 25-50 militants. The political and diplomatic cost of failure is too high. Indian establishment understood this too well and seem to have reworked their approach. The results are for everybody to see. In the past, we have seen missions and operations to neutralize specific terrorists. But this is the first time since the 90s that such a prolonged operation has been taken up which has almost wiped up the entire leadership. The Intelligence gathering and coordination between various agencies is simply amazing! It almost looks like a video game! A new one comes up and there you go-BOOM !

                This government is known for using facades to hide their real act/motives. We particularly witnessed this after the Uri attacks when the Government keep everybody busy thinking there would be a diplomatic response like reviewing the Indus Water treaty, while they actually launched the surgical strikes.  Well- Now it looks like the surgical strikes actually were a façade! They helped calm the initial domestic discontent giving the forces time to actually plan and carry out their mission! So the response to Uri and Pathankot is not the surgical strikes, but what’s been going on for past six months! And if the success rate is any indicator, this is just the beginning! To an extent that the IG of Kashmir openly jokes that nobody is now ready to take up the mantle of LET!!.

                So what does it all mean? Will this bring peace? No. Will it reduce terrorist attacks? Probably not in a long term. Will it solve the Kashmir problem? Of course not! But then it was never about peace or freedom in the first place. One would have been stupid enough to expect ‘freedom’ for Kashmir with such terrorist attacks just as it is stupid to expect peace with elimination of terrorists. It’s a game the sleuths play to establish superiority.  This game can only be finished on the negotiating table with the political leadership involved.

 Till that happens? The game’s on!!

A tale of two cities

                February 2003. The carnival of cricket was about to begin. Like the preceding four occasions, we were being told how the Indian side was the strongest batting lineup on paper. Of course, the big ‘IF’-they deliver. By then, we had been used to the uncertainties of cricket- the vagaries of weather, the ‘luck’ factor including the toss, the perceived inequalities arising due to the Duckworth Lewis method and to an extent also the influence of the match fixing mafia. But in spite of all these, the belief in the national team and the hope that we would bring back the cup home, remained intact. This was coupled by the fact that we really had a strong team (again- on paper) that was capable of winning the world cup. The team started on a good note and was getting better and better every match. They overcame every obstacle with finesse, displaying a mix of team work and individual brilliance to defeat their opponents.  The hopes of the nation had never been so high in the past 20 years since Kapil’s men performed the miracle.  All eyes were now set on the final. Will an in-form Indian team with Tendulkar on its side defeat the mighty Australians?  Well, the final turned out to be an anti-climax of sorts. Not only did the Indians lose, they lost massively. The mighty Australians gave a clinical performance to bring the Indians to their knees. A billion prayers, some stalwarts and ‘amateur’ professionalism was clearly insufficient to defeat a professional war machine. The Indians were still a better side on any other day. But to deliver when it matters- needs a degree of resilience, professionalism and courage which the Indian team lacked that day.

                Two cities on the either side of the globe faced the fury of nature at the same time. Thanks to technology, both were forewarned. Mumbai and Houston-both have been at the receiving end of nature’s wrath multiple times in the past. In Mumbai, it’s an annual (or bi-annual) event causing devastation and loss every time. Houston meets the same fate every few years. Both have limitations due to their geographical positions. Also human misery is not often alleviated by the power of money, implying that the populace of both cities suffered the same loss – financially and otherwise. Unfortunately the comparison ends right here. As the saying goes- Life is one percent of what happens to you and ninety nine percent of how you respond to it. That’s where the difference begins. While the administration was quick to respond in case of Houston with Disaster management teams, emergency services and the armed forces swinging into action, Mumbai waited and watched the nature’s fury unfold. The Houston authorities were effectively responding to people, rescuing them from affected areas, arranging for shelters, the communication mechanism working round the clock warning people and preventing/minimizing losses wherever possible. To top it all, there were self-help groups who are helping the needy, collaborating with the agencies. Hurricane Harvey proved like the previous occasions, the robustness of the Emergency response system in the United States.

                Mumbai was altogether a different tale. The administration was a sitting duck most of the times waiting for things to get back, at the mercy of nature! Those who had promised moon during elections were nowhere to be seen-as for the past many years. Perhaps enjoying ‘pakodas’ in the confines of their cozy homes. Or probably may even have taken off to safer places! Politicians who have sought votes (and successfully) in the name of ‘Marathi manoos’ have betrayed the same people who trusted them. And this has been happening for year after year after year. The administration that was quick to act on ‘Mumbai ,tula mazyawar bharosa nai ka” parody probably didn’t think that the floods were a reason enough to act. The state administration was better than the city for they could get more ‘photos’ of politicians working overnight out to the social media! The agony is, common Mumbaikars –poor and rich have been going through this for years. Every time, there’s a lot of noise in the print media, electronic media and social media, occasional morchas. But then the monsoon ends and so does the fire. The administration goes back to ‘normal’ only to be awakened the next year. Don’t get me wrong- There are upright officers, some concerned politicians, upright police men, professional railway workers and many in the administration who have worked above and beyond their duty to help fellow Mumbaikars. The city salutes these men and women who braved the odds of nature and tried to do the best they can in the given circumstances. There is also the indomitable spirit of Mumbai that has seen brave many such challenges in the past and will continue to do so for years to come. But such isolated efforts are clearly not sufficient to get the city out of rubbles. What is needed is a perestroika – a complete overhaul of the disaster management process. Or at a bare minimum, a complete implementation of the disaster management plan. This cannot be left to the mercy of a few upright officers and some concerned citizens.

                There was an amusing tweet doing rounds at the time Mumbai and Houston both were suffering. To a tweet on how people were looting homes in Houston during the hurricane, Mr Anand Mahindra tweeted how the slum dwellers were helping the stranded with tea and biscuits- the idea being to demonstrate the difference in human values and culture of Mumbai and the US. Well, frankly, there are good and not so well people all over. It has nothing to do with a city or culture. The key question is – is that an answer? Can we rely on a few good people and a few good officers and a few million prayers to rescue us out of situations?  Until we act tough and get the act correct, we will continue to praise the ‘spirit of Mumbai’ while a Houston gets better and stronger at responding to the situations. At the end of the day, it’s the team that is professional, has a strategy in place and delivers when it matters –Wins. The others stay the same- A bunch of losers.

Note: India did win the world cup in 2011. That only gives us a hope- Someday, Mumbai too can J. 

Scar

Time, they say, is a great healer. May be-But it does leave a scar behind. The visible one can still be fixed. Invisible ones often last lifetime. I had my own ‘scar-y’ experience in childhood, not a very scary one though :). It so happened one winter afternoon that we were on our regular excursion of ‘fruit picking’. The target today being ‘bor’(jujube) . A bit about the fruit picking first. It was our first exposure to the world of espionage and piracy. Way different than the fancier ‘apple picking’ or ‘strawberry picking’ experiences of today. Our town, which in today’s times would have resembled a national reserve for its lush greenery,was abound with fruits of all kinds ranging from Alphonso, gooseberry,pomogranade, guava,conkerberry,bor ,banana and many others. So it would only be natural for the decedents of apes to be attracted towards them. Fruit picking for us was a serious business. It all started with identifying the ‘target’ followed by intense reconnaissance of the property. All data like number of family members, their movements, visitors, neighbors,office shifts etc was gathered and a date and time for operation finalized. Quite often we took help from a ‘local handler’ who was familiar with the terrain. Once the operation was finalized, we would gather our weapons like catapult, pebbles, and small stones.The operation involved specialists taking down the targets with their weapons, while the rest would collect the fallen loot and arrange for logistics to be taken back home. Depending on the need, some commandos called climbers would climb up on the targets to wipe out the enemy targets. Once in our territory, we would distribute the loot (the captain would get a majority share-even back then!!) and enjoy the ‘fruits’ of our hard work! But as is the case in the world of espionage, not all operations were successful. Often we fell into the trap set up by the ‘enemy’ and were punished. Punishment usually consisted of scolding, handing over the ‘loot’, reporting to our parents and occasionally a threat of informing the school. Seldom physical assault.  The excursions nevertheless went on season after season.
So I happened to be the local handler for operation ‘Bor’ on that fateful day.  Things were going smoothly inside Mrs Sonawane’s compound and we had collected enough bors to last a week when we heard a ‘THUD’ from the farther side of Mrs Sonawane’s backyard. I made the cardinal mistake of ignoring the noise, thinking it to be the handiwork (or legwork if you may call it) of Tommy. I was about to resume collecting the loot when I suddenly saw our troopers and looters and climbers all running away in every direction possible. Just as I was about to turn around to find out the reason for this vanishing act, I was lifted three feet above the ground by a monster and dumped a couple of feet away. Before I could gather my thoughts, I saw a furious Daler Singh (name changed) howling at me while bumping me in parallel. My attempts to stand up and flee were met with slaps on my chubby cheeks. I somehow rescued myself and fled for my life, while being continued to be butchered by Daler. He chased me for almost a kilometer before his lungs gave up. I was so shaken and scared that it took me a couple of hours to stabilize, only to realize how big a mess I had landed into. The first thing was to pray that the incident was not reported to my parents, who would not as much worry about my excursions , but for the fact that I was being reported by Daler ,the pig head ! It was after all a matter of prestige! Even if the matter was not reported, I would certainly have a hard time explaining the bruises and dirt on my clothes.  We didn’t have parents who would say ‘ Daag acche hain’ ,back then. It took all the wisdom and intellect of a 10 year old to get out of this situation unscathed-only to deal with serious after effects. The ‘THUD’, by the way, was one of our stone missiles hitting Daler’s bicycle!
Having known that I was scared of him, Daler, the pig head that he was, got into the habit of chasing me every now and then. I was scared to death. To make matters worse, Daler’s home was on my way to school and play and practically every other place I would need to go! I was scared even of getting out of my house, changed my school route, avoided friends for the fear that I would be caught and every night slept with the burden of being assaulted by ‘the’ Daler.  There was no way I could tell my parents. So I suffered-silently. It continued for months or may be a year or so. The fear eventually made its way to caution and I resumed my normal life. As I grew bigger and stronger, I had no reason to fear Daler at all. But the scar persisted. It does, to this day. Rarely, but surely on days like today, the scar reminds me of the humiliation and assault and the dark nights that I spent.
1962 was a scar that three generations of Indians had to live with for past fifty five years. Ironically a vast majority of us were not even born before the China war. But we still continue to collectively bear the burden of humiliation. It was a war India lost militarily, strategically and psychologically. The damage done during the war and losing of the territory was nothing compared to the aftermath. We never seemed to recover from 1962 and even if we did, the scar always remained, reminding us every moment of the humiliation we suffered. It is precisely in this context that the outcome of the Doklam conflict has to be viewed from. From the very first day, the conflict was never about the ‘chicken’s neck’ or helping Bhutan. People in the know can cite hundreds of examples where the Chinese soldiers have intentionally or un-intentionally transgressed.  While accepting that they become bolder over time, to quote the Prime Minister in his own words (prior to Doklam), there had been peace at the border since 1962.  As for building a motorable road, in that kind of weather, any road would no longer be ‘motorable’ after a year! Such a high degree of maintenance and serviceability would render it cost ineffective and strategically less significant. Also with the strategic advantage that India enjoys being positioned on the ‘heights’, anything that crosses the line during conflicts would be butchered. So with or without road, China always was and would have remained at a strategic disadvantage, militarily.
What then was the real reason for Chinese advances and India’s resistance? It certainly goes beyond the ‘road building’ and ‘helping Bhutan’ narrative. Tensions have been simmering. The Indian side was peeved by Chinese non-cooperation on issues like NSG membership and Security Council resolution for declaring Hafeez Sayed a designated terrorist. Add to this the increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, OBOR which completely disregarded India’s concern of territorial sovereignty and China cozying up with its neighbors by loosening purse strings. On the Chinese side, India’s non participation in OBOR initiative (India was the only major nation to skip the summit) and partnering with the US and Japan on strategic and military matters definitely antagonized China. So the stage had been set before the conflict. The Doklam ‘road building’ was an excuse. It is possible that an alert Indian side got wind of it and responded speedily. But given the circumstances before (The PM’s mention about peace on border just days prior to Doklam logjam) and the manner in which India conducted afterwards, lends credence to a theory that the Indian side had planned for this either based on intelligence inputs or yearly patterns. The Chinese fell into a trap. A trap they found difficult to get out of with their usual 3 war strategy. Whatever may be the case, India decided to finally stand up and give it back in kind. Post that, it was a brilliant execution of strategy on all fronts. The war ,as per Sun Tzu was won even before it was fought! China hardly had any options. It was India’s win all the way. Strategically this was a bigger win than 1962 simply because of the fact that we live in different times with information spreading at the speed of light. So don’t be surprised that some other nations are emboldened to stand up against Chinese aggression, with support from ‘like minded nations’. The biggest loss for China is -The veil over their invincibility has been taken off for once.
Nobody expects the Chinese to sit idle. They may definitely wait for an opportunity to get even. We may be headed for tough times. But for now, we can bask in our glory!
The scar has been wiped clear- finally!

Yogi's world

Last week saw one of the biggest questions faced by Indians -–“Why did Kathappa kill Bahubali” being replaced with “Why did Modi choose Yogi!”. Well Bahubali  still has the upcoming sequel to reclaim its number Uno spot !Like any other event in Indian politics, this one comes with its own flavors. Just a peek at the reactions would give you a glimpse. There are those jubilant ones whose joy knows no bounds. They are convinced that with this decision, we are almost closer to becoming a Hindu Rashtra and that the Ram Mandir will be build tomorrow. They give you the look of “I told you so” with a twinkle in the eye. It’s another matter that more than half of them would not have put their money on the Yogi’s name had they been asked to bet before the election! There is another ‘I told you so’ category. These are the exact antithesis of the first. They are what you call the ‘Seculars’. They would give you the ‘I told you so’ look even if anyone of 323 legislators or 15 of the aspirant- non Legislators were chosen.  Per their theory BJP/RSS is set to divide the country –no matter what. And what better proof than a saffron robed Yogi who has multitudes of controversial speeches to his name, anointed as the Chief Minister of UP!  Between these two extremes of the pH scale, are the vast majority of us genuinely trying to figure out “Why”. 

Enough has been written to answer the ‘Why’ since last two days. You have answers suited to which side of the scale you belong to. Lets look at a few starting from the left of the pH scale and moving towards the right.

1.This brings out the true colors of Modi and BJP. They always want to communalize the society. Having such a person as CM will be catastrophic to the people of UP and particularly the minorities.

2.It is clear that Modi wants to pursue the line of hard line Hindutava . The politics of development is a façade.

3.This clearly shows that the RSS is the boss and it has thrust Yogi upon Modi/Shah combine.

4.While the decision to choose the leader and CM rests with the party with majority, the credentials of this person are unbecoming of a CM.

5.Yogi is the outcome of the delicate act of balancing the cast equation in UP.

6.One wonder’s what compulsions Modi- Shah had, particularly since there are many other eligible candidates.

7.He is a good choice. But somebody more suave might have helped. After all the elections were won with a development agenda.

8.Just because he is a Yogi, doesn’t mean he will not focus of development! He is a BSc in Math’s! Have you seen his speeches in parliament?

9.This had to happen. It’s truly respecting people’s wishes. Yogi has massive support in Eastern UP. He is a 5 times MP and extremely hard working and dedicated. 

10.BJP is giving a very strong message via this selection. By appointing the Yogi as CM BJP shows its commitment to Ram Temple, Hindu Rashtra and Ram Janmbhoomi has not wavered. 

11.As if you had a choice! UP me Rahena hoga to Yogi Yogi kahana hoga!

So as you see, we have something for everybody! Pick and choose your reason and get convinced!. But before that, A few theories need to be out rightly debunked

1.True colors – Communalism – This is absurd for many reasons. Couple of them being a. Modi-Shah have elections to fight – around 5-7 state elections and the general elections of 2019. More importantly, the Hindus are not like a herd of sheep to vote enmass. If the BJP couldn’t muster beyond 180 at the peak of the Ayodhya movement, there’s no reason it could do now with a more globalized world. So in isolation this move would actually be counterproductive and it would be like doubting the basic political acumen of the duo!

2.RSS forced Yogi on Modi-Shah to show who the real boss is. Well in this case the real boss is Modi. Overtly and covertly. RSS has always been there. So has been the Yogi for almost two decades. Still it had to wait 14 years to get back to power. While RSS –BJP always keep their interactions and power plays under wraps, it is not so difficult to imagine that in this case, RSS was more in a consultative role at the very best.

3.Ram temple is just a matter of weeks! -Well then wait and watch! .  While the Yogi may touch some low hanging fruits like closure of mechanized slaughter houses etc to make his presence felt, he always has the cover of  ‘ case sub-judicial’  to keep the Ram temple aside.

Having said that, a few of the reasons, do have merit and may have led to the selection 

1.Apart from development, some hardline talk from the Yogi did find resonance with people, particularly those affected by communal riots. So while the BJP wants to move forward with development they would want to keep the other pot boiling as well.

2.Yogi commands very high respect and popularity in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and generally across UP. He could very easily be the most popular leader among the current lot.

3.His age and the fact that he is a Sanyasi (above cast lines) may have gone into his favor.

While all these are good reasons, I am not that convinced! I somehow believe that Modi-Shah would not let such a historic win be obscured by selection of a controversial Yogi.  Particularly with five to seven states going for elections next year and anti-incumbency looming large on BJP ruled states. They surely must have some long term plan. As kids, we were thrilled when Tendulkar played well and India won. But we were even more thrilled when Tendulkar sat out (if he were injured) and India won. Reason? Well if the team could do so well without Tenulkar, imaging what it could do with him in the side! This not only was a morale booster for the Indian side but played on the minds of opposition!. In today’s context, imaging if BJP won a state election without Modi campaigning at all and they won! That would be a tremendous morale booster for the saffron party and great demoralizer for the opposition. So what? You may ask. How does it even relate to the question at hand? Here’s how

1.Yogi by far is one of the most right wing and hardliner leaders within the BJP. Goes without saying that a certain set of people would expect nasty decisions /actions from him to prove their point.

2.It is generally believed by opponents that he has been brought in to push the hardline agenda.

Now let’s turn it around. What happens if the UP government pursues a full-fledged development agenda and with help of Centre is able to show credible progress in a couple of years’ time? Well the development in itself may not be unusual. But the differentiator is – You have Yogi at the helm. To add to this, if there were no communal disturbances and the minorities felt comfortable in two years of rule, you would have addressed the biggest fear of Muslims and thrashed the biggest claim of opponents! If having Yogi Adityanath as CM didn’t spark communal riots in UP for two years, nothing can. And looking at the development, it is proved that BJP means development and the opposition claims and fears are baseless.  That –BJP would pursue developmental politics in UP is a no brainer. But in the process, if it could alleviate the fears of the minorities, you would have cracked the code ! That would really be a game changer with long lasting effects of course! So there you go!...