Each
year, of course barring the ones when the relationship between the two
neighbors is going through a good patch, June to September is the period when maximum
number of terrorists try to infiltrate into India from Pakistan, actively aided
by the Pakistani army. The idea is to cross the border and go incognito for the
next few weeks until winter sets in and then foment trouble in the valley. It
is very difficult to cross the border once winter sets in, particularly when it
starts snowing. Understanding this, the Indian security forces are on high
vigil during this period. There are a maximum number of cross border firings
and a maximum number of terrorist encounters during the summer months. On the contrary,
there is much less infiltration and cross border skirmishes during peak winter
months. This year there was a noticeable reduction in infiltration attempts as
claimed by the Indian army itself in July. One of the most important reasons supposedly
was the sword of FTAF hanging over Pakistan’s head. Moreover the Indian
security forces have been extremely successful in identifying and eliminating
terrorists for the past few years and this year in particular. So arguably,
Kashmir valley was enjoying one of the most peaceful phase in recent times.
With the lower infiltration, the winter was also looking to be a rather
peaceful one.
Suddenly
the government of India announced the abrogation of article 370 and all hell
broke loose. We are now hearing about thousands of terrorists either having
crossed the border or waiting to cross at the earliest opportunity. Moreover,
with the G7 submit, UN General Assembly planned in August-September timeframe ,
it only meant that the government of India had to put in double the diplomatic
effort to justify their action compared to what would have been required say in
winter. So then the question is – Why did the government of India rush through
the abrogation when the strategic time to do so would have been the months of winter?
The winter session of parliament to be specific. Make no mistake- The government did rush
through the implementation. Although the high level contours of the plan were
in place long before, the actual implementation was a hush hush affair starting
probably immediately after the new government took office or sometime around
end of June/early July. This was clear from the fact that the Amaranth yatri’s
and tourists were rushed back in a matter of days. Besides additional forces
were deployed in an expedited manner. For the level of secrecy that this kind
of operation demands, and what the government maintained, exposing the rapid
deployment of security forces was a risky move. They could have very well
handled it in a very phased and prolonged manner to avoid suspicion. So the
question basically is – Why did the government choose this time?
For
that one has to look westwards. The US has been in negotiations with the Taliban
for the past few months and was seen to be inching closer to a deal. Of course
the POTUS has domestic compulsions to pull back troops from Afghanistan before
2020 which only meant that the US representative Zalmay Khalizad would aggressively
try to broker a deal to meet the end. One of the biggest losers of such a so
called peace deal was India. India has consistently maintained the stance that
there cannot be a peace deal with Taliban and that such a deal cannot be
brokered without the involvement of the Afghan government. Given that India has
good relations with the Afghan government meant that India would have stake and
levers in such negotiation attempts. However Pakistan, which was playing its
cards close to the chest, successfully managed to keep the Afghan government
and thereby India off the table. A return of Taliban to the center of power in
Afghanistan spelt doom for India’s policy. For one, they would lose all the
lever and goodwill earned by two decades of hard work and contribution to the
Afghan society. Secondly, that would expand the strategic depth of Pakistan’s
influence and consequently reduce India’s traction across the region. Thirdly,
there were all indications that Pakistan would use their hold over the Taliban and
the newfound proximity to the western powers, to get Kashmir back in focus.
This was evident from Trump’s ‘offer’ of mediation in Kashmir. Given the exchange of tweets between Trump and
Imran Khan earlier this year, a visit by the Pakistan Prime Minister to the US
was deemed impossible in the first place, forget about the POTUS ‘mediating’ in
Kashmir. But within a matter of months, the scenario had changed. Considering
the possibility of a power transfer to Taliban, the Pakistani establishment
would have been free to focus on Kashmir and foment more trouble. Add to this
the fact that China would take over as the president of FTAF in October which
makes things easier for Pakistan. So things were about to turn good for
Pakistan in coming months. The lull in infiltration during summers was not due
to fear of reprisal but more a silence before the storm.
While
Modi was combing the nation with his rallies, the Indian strategic community
and spy agencies were keeping a close watch on the events in Doha, Islamabad
and Washington DC. The naming of Masood Azar as a global terrorist by the UNSC
was pursued as a victory by many in India (and appropriately used by the ruling
party to show ‘Modi’ power), a few of our strategic brains were bewildered by
China’s move, particularly at the time when elections were being held in India,
which meant, at least in theory there could be an alternate government in
India. They soon realized that it was a ploy to keep the Indians occupied in
the false sense of victory and keep them unwary. As the summers approached, the
Doha negotiations gathered momentum. Meanwhile other nations like Russia,
China, Iran, and Turkey too started actively involving themselves in different
format of negotiations, obviously to pick their share of pie from the war
ravaged nation. All, except India. In ironical, but unsurprising turn of
events, one of the biggest benefactor of the Afghan people since past two
decades was turning out to be one of the biggest losers in the process – strategically,
diplomatically and economically. Besides, a deal with Taliban would not only
expel India out of Afghanistan, it would also bring Pakistan out of the global
diplomatic isolation that had been a result of a carefully crafted narrative by
the Indian think tank.
Something had to be done –fast
The
Indians swung into action. The move was blasphemous and diplomatically untenable.
But then diplomacy is the art of making the impossible –possible. Fortunately,
the government had a renewed and stronger mandate which meant that things could
be taken care on the domestic front. Newer players in the upper house meant
that there was room for such a move. The government moved ahead and abrogated
Article 370 along with creation of two union territories. Pakistan was caught
by surprise and understandably furious. Therein started the diplomatic duel
between the two and China unfortunately (I confidently say it was an
unfortunate step which they would regret soon) played a wrong move by
attempting to take the issue to the UN. The Indians were swift to thwart such a
move and quickly went on offensive. Between the PM, the FM, the RM, the
President and the NSA they would have connected with the leadership of at least
over a hundred countries in a span of two to three weeks. Meanwhile the
security forces were doing a good job at keeping the valley mostly free of
violence. This ensured that barring the usual sermons about human rights, there
was nothing much to point fingers to. Also the narrative of ‘right to life
overrides others’ helped justify the restrictions which were being phased out. All
along, the Pakistanis were trying all the tricks of the trade to get world
attention. Unable to foment trouble in Kashmir, they escalated violence in Afghanistan,
out of frustration, to get the US to influence India. And then the unthinkable
happened- The US called off the negotiations with Taliban. The abrogation, while an accomplishment in itself,
was timed to thwart the Taliban deal and the Indians seem to have succeeded in
the same. It would be overzealous to think that the Indian move alone was
responsible for calling off the Taliban talks, but certainly it would have
played a significant role in rattling the Pakistani think tank. They say, Diplomacy neither has a beginning
nor an end. So there may still be attempts to review the Taliban talks overtly
or covertly. But for now its
India -1
Pakistan- zero
