So finally the Maharashtra government has managed to pass the ‘Trust vote’. It is ironical that this had to happen with the support of a party whom the electorate trusted the least. But it’s after all a number game isn’t it? Nevertheless, within the boundaries of our democratic setup, this still counts as a ‘trust vote’. I would not comment on the ‘manner’ in which the trust vote was passed in Vidhan Sabha.I have scant knowledge of the law. Would rather leave it to the constitutional experts to break their heads. But yes, it was certainly not undisputed!
This finally puts an end ( well more of a punctuation than a full stop) to the first act of the play that begun in late September when both the alliances decided to part ways – coincidentally (?) on the same day. I wouldn’t want to judge what happened as right or wrong. To each, his own. But this for sure will change the politics of Maharashtra forever. Not to mention that it would have a serious impact on the state administration.
Here begins the second act!
Let’s start with the BJP. It is but obvious that this tie up with NCP is a need based one. BJP would want to break away from the shackles as soon as possible. So we will see a lot of ‘action’ going around to lure the discontented and power hungry legislatures from other parties. Unfortunately they have to break en-block (well Phadnavis must be cursing the person who brought in and passed the anti-defection law!). So if at all they succeed, it would mean that at least one political entity in the state suffers an irrecoverable loss. No points for guessing who the target might be! And all this would already be ‘tweaked’ as morally justifiable. For the BJP everything they do is ‘morally correct’ isn’t it? There would be lot of buzz in the social media on how- many opposition legislatures want to ‘contribute’ to the development of the state and want a steady government to facilitate development and strengthen the hands of the PM !. To ‘accommodate’ these well-wishers of the state, they will be given ministerial births and chairmanship of the millions of co-operative bodies in the state. This all in the name of ‘development’ and ‘stability’. But then BJP is right- A few more ministries for the Shiv Sena would have adversely affected development, whereas more than double that number given to opportunists will not. As I said, the BJP media managers would already have started campaigns to justify this and still proclaim how the party is ‘different’ and pro-development. The RSS will dissociate from the party while all this happens- with one of its mouthpieces criticizing the ‘deterioration of the political values’. Another one (or the same, after a few days) will justify the action in name of ‘Hindutva’ or ‘Development’. All this, while there would be a sustained malicious campaign against Shiv Sena, highlighting all the ‘ills’ that the BJP realized after 25 years.
For the Shiv Sena, well, they are the wounded tiger for sure! There would be ‘opposition’ everywhere. So you would see the battles being fought on streets as well as the Vidhan Sabha (well if the SS remains intact till then). Again all the ‘ills’ of BJP, realized after 25 years will be showcased. Marathi people – Beware!. You would be in danger every day from now! Or so would you be asked to believe!. Mumbai, Vidharbha, Belgum will all be issues of prime interest from now on. After all, who else is the protector of the Marathi manoos? . Of course, all this may die down if a ‘settlement’ is reached over continuation of power in the BMC. After all BMC is more important than ‘self-respect’ and Marathi interests, isn’t it ? . The only question is – will they have 63 warriors to fight or less than 40!.
Sharad Pawar has once again shown why he is the master of the game! The first thing he would do is to secure the 41 legislatures he has. Shouldn’t be too difficult for him unless there is a compulsive grudge against him or his family members, besides the lure of power and money ( which most of the 41 have in plenty) ! For him the equation is simple, continue support to the BJP till they rake up the various scams (less likely) OR there is an alternate plan in place (which would depend on whether the SS is about to break!), whichever is earlier. So the ‘stability’ would last only till the government has dependency on the NCP! After that the BJP becomes ‘communal’ and the NCP will act in interests of the state and Marathi Manoos!. Unless , of course , if the PM needs the services of an ‘able and experienced’ person like Sharad Pawar at the Centre AND the state government suddenly realizes that it has to ‘focus’ on development and not politics of ‘vendetta’ !.
One interesting factor to mention here is, while other the parties will be vigilant to keep their ‘stock’ together, the tables can be turned! The BJP itself has 22-24 of MLAs who are technically outsiders (mostly ex-NCP). Plus , there are at least a dozen aspirants of the ‘CM position’ in this disciplined party. I won’t be surprised if someone aspires to follow Sharad Pawar! (what he did in 1978). After all, there is little ‘flexibility’ these people get with Narendra and Devendra at the helm of affairs!. So there may be ‘ the one’ who wants to ‘rise’ against the purported anti-Marathi (the 'i' can be replaced by 'a' depending on the politics of that day !) policies of the BJP!
The one party that remains unaffected (more by compulsion than choice) by all this is the Congress. With a minor risk of defection, there is not much it got to lose, or rather left to lose! It also is technically speaking the only genuine opposition party in the state! The congress has an excellent opportunity to gain some ground and good will (yes! even after 15 years of mis-rule) in this scenario, but for the morons leading them at the Centre and state! Of course the congress would be ‘called in’ to service if there is an alternate formation taking place and would as usual offer ‘outside’ support for the ‘ benefit of the state’ and ‘to keep communal forces away’ !.
All in all, very ‘interesting’ times ahead!.And while this naked dance of politics is being played, people would still ask the question
“Kuhe nehun thevlay maaza Maharashtra “!
Lastly - The Third act? Well, that’s when the audience get to play and the actors watch!. Its just a question of when this happens !.
Jai Hind and (so much I wish) Jai Maharashtra!.
P.S : The views expressed above are speculations of possible scenarios. Something I so much wish shouldn’t happen but fear, it may! I would personally want a stable government in Maharashtra irrespective of my political orientation.
This finally puts an end ( well more of a punctuation than a full stop) to the first act of the play that begun in late September when both the alliances decided to part ways – coincidentally (?) on the same day. I wouldn’t want to judge what happened as right or wrong. To each, his own. But this for sure will change the politics of Maharashtra forever. Not to mention that it would have a serious impact on the state administration.
Here begins the second act!
Let’s start with the BJP. It is but obvious that this tie up with NCP is a need based one. BJP would want to break away from the shackles as soon as possible. So we will see a lot of ‘action’ going around to lure the discontented and power hungry legislatures from other parties. Unfortunately they have to break en-block (well Phadnavis must be cursing the person who brought in and passed the anti-defection law!). So if at all they succeed, it would mean that at least one political entity in the state suffers an irrecoverable loss. No points for guessing who the target might be! And all this would already be ‘tweaked’ as morally justifiable. For the BJP everything they do is ‘morally correct’ isn’t it? There would be lot of buzz in the social media on how- many opposition legislatures want to ‘contribute’ to the development of the state and want a steady government to facilitate development and strengthen the hands of the PM !. To ‘accommodate’ these well-wishers of the state, they will be given ministerial births and chairmanship of the millions of co-operative bodies in the state. This all in the name of ‘development’ and ‘stability’. But then BJP is right- A few more ministries for the Shiv Sena would have adversely affected development, whereas more than double that number given to opportunists will not. As I said, the BJP media managers would already have started campaigns to justify this and still proclaim how the party is ‘different’ and pro-development. The RSS will dissociate from the party while all this happens- with one of its mouthpieces criticizing the ‘deterioration of the political values’. Another one (or the same, after a few days) will justify the action in name of ‘Hindutva’ or ‘Development’. All this, while there would be a sustained malicious campaign against Shiv Sena, highlighting all the ‘ills’ that the BJP realized after 25 years.
For the Shiv Sena, well, they are the wounded tiger for sure! There would be ‘opposition’ everywhere. So you would see the battles being fought on streets as well as the Vidhan Sabha (well if the SS remains intact till then). Again all the ‘ills’ of BJP, realized after 25 years will be showcased. Marathi people – Beware!. You would be in danger every day from now! Or so would you be asked to believe!. Mumbai, Vidharbha, Belgum will all be issues of prime interest from now on. After all, who else is the protector of the Marathi manoos? . Of course, all this may die down if a ‘settlement’ is reached over continuation of power in the BMC. After all BMC is more important than ‘self-respect’ and Marathi interests, isn’t it ? . The only question is – will they have 63 warriors to fight or less than 40!.
Sharad Pawar has once again shown why he is the master of the game! The first thing he would do is to secure the 41 legislatures he has. Shouldn’t be too difficult for him unless there is a compulsive grudge against him or his family members, besides the lure of power and money ( which most of the 41 have in plenty) ! For him the equation is simple, continue support to the BJP till they rake up the various scams (less likely) OR there is an alternate plan in place (which would depend on whether the SS is about to break!), whichever is earlier. So the ‘stability’ would last only till the government has dependency on the NCP! After that the BJP becomes ‘communal’ and the NCP will act in interests of the state and Marathi Manoos!. Unless , of course , if the PM needs the services of an ‘able and experienced’ person like Sharad Pawar at the Centre AND the state government suddenly realizes that it has to ‘focus’ on development and not politics of ‘vendetta’ !.
One interesting factor to mention here is, while other the parties will be vigilant to keep their ‘stock’ together, the tables can be turned! The BJP itself has 22-24 of MLAs who are technically outsiders (mostly ex-NCP). Plus , there are at least a dozen aspirants of the ‘CM position’ in this disciplined party. I won’t be surprised if someone aspires to follow Sharad Pawar! (what he did in 1978). After all, there is little ‘flexibility’ these people get with Narendra and Devendra at the helm of affairs!. So there may be ‘ the one’ who wants to ‘rise’ against the purported anti-Marathi (the 'i' can be replaced by 'a' depending on the politics of that day !) policies of the BJP!
The one party that remains unaffected (more by compulsion than choice) by all this is the Congress. With a minor risk of defection, there is not much it got to lose, or rather left to lose! It also is technically speaking the only genuine opposition party in the state! The congress has an excellent opportunity to gain some ground and good will (yes! even after 15 years of mis-rule) in this scenario, but for the morons leading them at the Centre and state! Of course the congress would be ‘called in’ to service if there is an alternate formation taking place and would as usual offer ‘outside’ support for the ‘ benefit of the state’ and ‘to keep communal forces away’ !.
All in all, very ‘interesting’ times ahead!.And while this naked dance of politics is being played, people would still ask the question
“Kuhe nehun thevlay maaza Maharashtra “!
Lastly - The Third act? Well, that’s when the audience get to play and the actors watch!. Its just a question of when this happens !.
Jai Hind and (so much I wish) Jai Maharashtra!.
P.S : The views expressed above are speculations of possible scenarios. Something I so much wish shouldn’t happen but fear, it may! I would personally want a stable government in Maharashtra irrespective of my political orientation.
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