Track-ing Diplomacy

      I have a confession to make, which will make my cricket loving friends laugh at me. I have been watching a ‘delayed’ telecast of the world cup matches! So it’s like I get to see the progress 5 minutes after the event. Meanwhile I continue to get live scores. So although I know what’s going to happen next, the result of the match as a whole is not known. It is disappointing for sure. But I take solace in the fact that many of us, at some point, would have missed matches or switched off anticipating a loss only to know later that it was a match you would never have missed and have to be content with the highlights.

      News regarding politics, and foreign affairs in particular is like a ‘delayed’ telecast -especially now a days, when media is used as a powerful tool in foreign affairs. You get to hear of ‘events’ that are already scripted and the ‘match’ has progressed a bit more than that. The end result is not known. There are however differences between Cricket and Foreign affairs. For one, in diplomacy, it is rarely a case that one party wins and other loses. It needs to be a win-win situation or at least perceived so. The other difference being, both the ‘teams’ have the ability to re-shoot (project) the outcome of the match as they wish. So a party may show the team celebrating or the match washed away!

      Series of events related to Pakistan, especially in the new world (which began on 26-May-2014) have certainly intrigued me. First we have (to-be) PM Modi inviting the Pakistani counterpart for the swearing-in which the latter readily agrees, notwithstanding the domestic opposition. While there is lot of talk about the diplomatic ‘coup’ by Modi, the supposed display of diplomatic maturity by both the leaders is lost. Then there is lot of bonhomie about the ‘Sari’ diplomacy. The episode is well crafted and ends with a message of ‘All is well’. This is followed by revelation of a certain Ved Pratap Vaidik meeting one of the ‘most wanted terrorists’ for India, Hafiz Saeed.  Although, we are being told that the visit was in an individual capacity, what interests me is, how can an Indian citizen plan for such an important meeting, in Pakistan without the knowledge of intelligence agencies and/or the powers be. How did Pakistan even allow such a meet? Also, is there no such law amongst the thousands we have, which will book Vaidik for such an act? He is still out in open. Something is missing.

So far, so good.

      Now we have the Indian side suddenly cancelling the foreign secretary level talks at a short notice, for a reason that could very well have been anticipated or known in advance with modest intelligence. This is followed by usual bickering in the UN General Assembly, but nothing alarming.  Come winter and there are reports of ‘heavy’ gun fire from across the border. Both sides claim to be the victim. As an Indian, I am told that this is so because this time we have responded adequately to the adventures of the Pakistani side.  There is no red flag or alarm at an international level. So much so that the USA merely ‘advises’ both the sides to maintain calm and solve disputes bilaterally (usual sermons).  Then the firing stops or lessens and there are elections in Kashmir, which pass of relatively peacefully. Hurriyat, for a change doesn’t oppose it.  There is a suspected ‘terrorist’ boat downed by India after the elections. There are other important political events happening on either side during this entire period. Elections in India, ‘Azadi’ march in Pakistan etc.  Interested readers can correlate the domestic events with the diplomatic ones, looking at the timelines! I personally won’t read too much into it J.

      Very recently, we have the newly elected CM of J&K thanking Pakistan and separatists for peaceful elections in the state on the first day of assuming office.  I wonder if Mr Sayeed is so diplomatically naïve as not to anticipate the fallout of such a statement. We have the foreign secretary visiting Pakistan in spite of all the supposedly unfavorable events in past 6 months. I am told that talks with Pakistan was a precondition that PDP set for the alliance. Well, was BJP so desperate to form the government? Didn't they have other options? Certainly not a convincing theory. Latest in the episode, we have Masarat Alam Bhat being released by the J&K government, which the centre claims was done without its consultation (well if that’s really the case, I pity our intelligence  J ). To add some spice to the story we haven’t had any terrorist attacks since past 9 months, as would have been widely anticipated, except for some instances in Kashmir and the ‘boat’ episode.  I don’t think this is because Pakistan suddenly lost the capability or the Indian intelligence turned stronger overnight (the same intelligence that failed to predict the release of Masarat Alam Bhat!). Also, if the supposed ‘peace’ is due to fear of Modi, how come the Pakistanis dared to openly violate the ceasefire on LOC and even international border? And what made them stop?

      There may have been some intricate details missed out from the story above, but I believe that all these and other events are not necessarily unrelated. There is a script in place, which is being advanced and we get to see the ‘delayed’ telecast. It’s like a big jigsaw puzzle which a commoner cannot put together because we will never get the ‘missing’ pieces! And rightfully so. But somebody is solving the puzzle for sure, as we speak.  And that is good. Track 2 (3, 4, 5 whatever you call it) diplomacy is essential particularly in Indo-Pak relations. And the incumbent government is well placed to take the mantle forward. Imagine a congress government taking these steps!

It will be interesting to see if the telecast finally shows both teams celebrating or a washed out match!

Keeping fingers XXX!

Jai Hind.