Interesting times! – Both on the domestic front and international as well. Let’s park the domestic politics for a bit and look at the geopolitical scenario internationally. Typically international relations and diplomacy are a reflection of the long term geo-strategic and economic interests of a nation. India is no exception. So we usually see continuation of our policies vis-à-vis other nations independent of the party that leads the government. Of course each government is entitled to change or tweak them as per the need of the day and the domestic political compulsions. However the long term strategies are still in place. A classic example here is our diplomatic relations with Israel. Although, it was the previous NDA government that openly acknowledged the relations and helped them grow, it is naïve to believe that the previous Narsimha Rao government didn’t take any steps in that regard. Similarly, it has to be understood that the 10 years of UPA regime did continue to nourish the relationship albeit covertly at times. Similarly our overall approach towards other nations –be it Pakistan China, USA or our other neighbors continues to be driven by our interests.
So, one may ask- If it is such a seamless process largely driven by the ‘strategists’ and bureaucracy, what role does the government play? Well apart from the ability and power to alter the ‘set’ principles, the executive government has a major role to play in terms of publicly defining the course of things and setting the pace of change aligned with the geo-political realities of times. The incumbent government certainly seems to have accelerated the pace of things. It ruffled many a feathers when George Fernandes publicly declared in 1998 that China was India’s biggest threat. However, he was merely stating the fact, acknowledged publicly and otherwise by many a strategists in India and across the globe. Today it seems to be a matter of fact. And why not? After all, the two most populous countries, growing at a fast pace and aiming to be the biggest economies in a couple of decades, are destined to lock horns on various fronts. We have seen this for centuries earlier. So net net, China continues to be our biggest threat in geopolitical and economic sense. Not necessarily because China thinks ill of India (as like Pakistan) but because India is and will pose a formidable threat to Chinese interests in the future.
As far as strategy is concerned, China took the head start by envisioning (or rather excavating) the silk route and taking effective steps to ensure its success. The ‘string of pearls’ was a part of the plan to facilitate the silk route thereby establishing Chinese economic supremacy in the region at the same time curtailing the Indian dominance. Indian problems were threefold. One, to ‘break’ the string of pearls. Second to establish a counter strategy and third to initiate /revitalize (for it would be naïve to think India doesn’t have one) its own growth plan. As mentioned, the Indian government seems to have taken effective steps to counter the first two. All the initiatives and foreign trips in past 7-8 months seem to be been taken with this in mind. Prime Minister Modi’s first stop was Bhutan which seemed leaning towards China in the recent times. We presume that the visit would have enabled India to get specific assurances from the north east nation in terms of protecting Indian interests. Ditto with Nepal which is/was witnessing increased Chinese influence. The rapidity of help to Maldives in ‘water crisis’ ( apart from the humanitarian angle of course ) and the invisible ‘Indian’ hand in the change of a ‘less friendly’ regime in Sri Lanka can be viewed in the same context. India is also seen to be taking rapid steps towards nurturing and growing its relations with Myanmar and Vietnam. With all other frontiers ‘contained’, the last one that remains is Pakistan. That’s a difficult one to deal with due to the history of our relations. However, I believe there is a strategy in place and the current plan is to ‘ignore and ignore’.
The next phase was to establish a counter to the ‘string of pearls’. India’s aggressive diplomacy with the US, Japan, Australia and other Southeast countries is aimed in this context. The rapidity with which the PMs Visits were organized to the US, Japan, Australia certainly lends credibility to this assumption. The visit of POTUS on republic day was more a part of this arrangement with the nuclear deal and other ‘economic’ aspects being a façade! You certainly don’t need head of states to visit each other to sign economic agreements and deals. No matter what the value is! Also, India has, and had more trade relations with the EU and Great Britain than say Japan or Australia. So, clearly the PMs Visits were organized with other geo-strategic interests in mind, apart from the economic ones. The net effect is –we see a possibility of an axis being formed with US, Japan, Australia and India –supported by other nations in the South China Sea, to contain the hegemony of China. This certainly is an important step for it gives the Chinese the taste of their own medicine and also for once, proves that India can be assertive in countering the threat.
With all cards being played well, India clearly seems to have an advantage. The US, Japan, Australia, India axis clearly is a more potent threat than the string of pearls-which is beginning to be countered by Indians. The pace of development would certainly have made the Chinese re-think some of their plans! For traditionally they are not used to such rapid and aggressive posturing from the Indian side. Net net, kudos to the Modi government for attempting to change the rules of engagement and being assertive. Having said that, the battle is not won. The Chinese are not going to be laid down permanently. It is a matter of time that they would come up with a strategy to counter. Besides, they always have their ‘all weather’ friend Pakistan to cause necessary trouble. Also, one must understand that there are no permanent friends here. Each nation including us is going to weigh in the economic impacts of countering China and it is a matter of time that China manages to break the ‘axis’ as they have done in the past. As far as India is concerned, we are not at ‘war’ with China. But trying to protect our current and future interests. Also, Asia (Indian Ocean and South China Sea) is one of the regions where this battle of supremacy is fought. China has been beating us comfortably, strategically and (consequently) financially in other regions such as Africa, Eastern Europe and rest of Asia. Combined with the scale of Chinese economic might, it is a tough battle ahead.
This is precisely where the third strategy comes in place. India needs to have a plan for its economic revival/growth independent of China, US or any other power. The key to our future is to execute this plan and align our geo-strategic interests towards this plan and not necessarily to contain China, favor US or threaten Pakistan. That would be the true measure of our willingness to attain the economic ‘might’ we all dream of!
Lastly, China and India are both ancient civilizations who have been at the zenith of power and glory multiple times in the past. However never together! Even if that were the case, there was no direct confrontation due to geographical limitations. So this is really the first time in history that they may collide. It would be interesting to see if they take the path of confrontation or establish ways to ‘co-exist’. After all, both are part of the shared ‘Eastern’ culture .
Jai Hind!
So, one may ask- If it is such a seamless process largely driven by the ‘strategists’ and bureaucracy, what role does the government play? Well apart from the ability and power to alter the ‘set’ principles, the executive government has a major role to play in terms of publicly defining the course of things and setting the pace of change aligned with the geo-political realities of times. The incumbent government certainly seems to have accelerated the pace of things. It ruffled many a feathers when George Fernandes publicly declared in 1998 that China was India’s biggest threat. However, he was merely stating the fact, acknowledged publicly and otherwise by many a strategists in India and across the globe. Today it seems to be a matter of fact. And why not? After all, the two most populous countries, growing at a fast pace and aiming to be the biggest economies in a couple of decades, are destined to lock horns on various fronts. We have seen this for centuries earlier. So net net, China continues to be our biggest threat in geopolitical and economic sense. Not necessarily because China thinks ill of India (as like Pakistan) but because India is and will pose a formidable threat to Chinese interests in the future.
As far as strategy is concerned, China took the head start by envisioning (or rather excavating) the silk route and taking effective steps to ensure its success. The ‘string of pearls’ was a part of the plan to facilitate the silk route thereby establishing Chinese economic supremacy in the region at the same time curtailing the Indian dominance. Indian problems were threefold. One, to ‘break’ the string of pearls. Second to establish a counter strategy and third to initiate /revitalize (for it would be naïve to think India doesn’t have one) its own growth plan. As mentioned, the Indian government seems to have taken effective steps to counter the first two. All the initiatives and foreign trips in past 7-8 months seem to be been taken with this in mind. Prime Minister Modi’s first stop was Bhutan which seemed leaning towards China in the recent times. We presume that the visit would have enabled India to get specific assurances from the north east nation in terms of protecting Indian interests. Ditto with Nepal which is/was witnessing increased Chinese influence. The rapidity of help to Maldives in ‘water crisis’ ( apart from the humanitarian angle of course ) and the invisible ‘Indian’ hand in the change of a ‘less friendly’ regime in Sri Lanka can be viewed in the same context. India is also seen to be taking rapid steps towards nurturing and growing its relations with Myanmar and Vietnam. With all other frontiers ‘contained’, the last one that remains is Pakistan. That’s a difficult one to deal with due to the history of our relations. However, I believe there is a strategy in place and the current plan is to ‘ignore and ignore’.
The next phase was to establish a counter to the ‘string of pearls’. India’s aggressive diplomacy with the US, Japan, Australia and other Southeast countries is aimed in this context. The rapidity with which the PMs Visits were organized to the US, Japan, Australia certainly lends credibility to this assumption. The visit of POTUS on republic day was more a part of this arrangement with the nuclear deal and other ‘economic’ aspects being a façade! You certainly don’t need head of states to visit each other to sign economic agreements and deals. No matter what the value is! Also, India has, and had more trade relations with the EU and Great Britain than say Japan or Australia. So, clearly the PMs Visits were organized with other geo-strategic interests in mind, apart from the economic ones. The net effect is –we see a possibility of an axis being formed with US, Japan, Australia and India –supported by other nations in the South China Sea, to contain the hegemony of China. This certainly is an important step for it gives the Chinese the taste of their own medicine and also for once, proves that India can be assertive in countering the threat.
With all cards being played well, India clearly seems to have an advantage. The US, Japan, Australia, India axis clearly is a more potent threat than the string of pearls-which is beginning to be countered by Indians. The pace of development would certainly have made the Chinese re-think some of their plans! For traditionally they are not used to such rapid and aggressive posturing from the Indian side. Net net, kudos to the Modi government for attempting to change the rules of engagement and being assertive. Having said that, the battle is not won. The Chinese are not going to be laid down permanently. It is a matter of time that they would come up with a strategy to counter. Besides, they always have their ‘all weather’ friend Pakistan to cause necessary trouble. Also, one must understand that there are no permanent friends here. Each nation including us is going to weigh in the economic impacts of countering China and it is a matter of time that China manages to break the ‘axis’ as they have done in the past. As far as India is concerned, we are not at ‘war’ with China. But trying to protect our current and future interests. Also, Asia (Indian Ocean and South China Sea) is one of the regions where this battle of supremacy is fought. China has been beating us comfortably, strategically and (consequently) financially in other regions such as Africa, Eastern Europe and rest of Asia. Combined with the scale of Chinese economic might, it is a tough battle ahead.
This is precisely where the third strategy comes in place. India needs to have a plan for its economic revival/growth independent of China, US or any other power. The key to our future is to execute this plan and align our geo-strategic interests towards this plan and not necessarily to contain China, favor US or threaten Pakistan. That would be the true measure of our willingness to attain the economic ‘might’ we all dream of!
Lastly, China and India are both ancient civilizations who have been at the zenith of power and glory multiple times in the past. However never together! Even if that were the case, there was no direct confrontation due to geographical limitations. So this is really the first time in history that they may collide. It would be interesting to see if they take the path of confrontation or establish ways to ‘co-exist’. After all, both are part of the shared ‘Eastern’ culture .
Jai Hind!
