Narendra Modi and his team surely know the art of keeping
secrets and at times building the necessary suspense. Be it the surprise visit
to Pakistan in Dec 2015 or the famous ‘Mitron’ of 8th Nov 2016, Modi
has consistently delivered on his surprises! Not to mention the surgical
strikes and then again the air strikes thereby doing a ‘gotcha’ to Pakistan not
once, but twice! If somebody were to believe that Modi is good as a T20 or a
one day player, he demonstrated otherwise by playing a patient and long drawn
game finally resulting in virtual decimation of Article 370. By now it’s in
public domain how the whole thing started with BJP forming a coalition
government with the PDP and then withdrawing support at an ‘opportune’ time in
June 2018. After this any attempts to form a government were ‘sabotaged’
leading to a Governor’s rule. The state elections were not conducted alongside
the Lok Sabha elections with specific purpose –as we know now. The action plan
was ready well before the commencement of election process in Feb 2019 and all
the players swung into action right after the government took charge in May
2019. From that point on, all the administrative process was completed in
expeditious manner with utmost secrecy such that nobody had a wimp of what was
about to come till the very last moment.
Of
course, the most important aspect of this plan was the ‘how’- the legal aspect.
For long it was believed that fiddling with Article 370 was almost impossible
for 2 reasons – 1. Abrogation of article 370 required changes to the
constitution – an area too sensitive for any political party to venture 2. Any changes to Article 370 need to be approved
by the Legislative assembly (Constituent Assembly in the original article).
Given the composition of J&K assembly this was virtually impossible to
achieve. Such was the confidence that it led to a prominent leader from the
state arrogantly claiming that Modi cannot touch article 370 even if he came to
power 10 times! Well, he was soon to be
proved wrong. The legal team behind this plan indeed outsmarted everyone. They beat
the article by using one of the clauses in the article. So without the need to abrogate,
article 370 was rendered defunct. This will surely be challenged in the courts.
But for now, there doesn’t seem anything illegal in it.
However,
for all the visible perfection and secrecy that the government demonstrated in
planning and executing this, there’s more than what meets the public eye. I base
this statement on three or four aspects that were very noticeable. Firstly, the
widely believed theory that the regional leadership of J&K – namely the
Abdullah’s and the Mufti’s were taken by surprise may be wrong. If one looks at
the sequence of events, namely the meeting of the Abdullah’s with the PM couple
of days before the unfolding of events in parliament, the all party meeting in Srinagar
on the day prior, there definitely seem to be something fishy. Firstly, why
would the Abdullah’s want to meet the PM knowing that the massive troop buildup
was for some ‘not so desirable’ reasons? Convincing or requesting the PM? Are
you kidding? Secondly, why would the PM even grant them audience? Thirdly, if the government could put the
leaders under detention from Sunday mid-night, why not a few hours earlier so
as to prevent the all party meeting? Aren’t these leaders threat enough that
they were put under detention from Sunday night? So why allow the meeting? Also
if we closely look at the tweets, it is very surprising that the leaders from
the valley almost knew that something terrible was to happen and they appeal
for peace. Assuming that they may have twitted due to the ongoing troop
buildup, then it’s too much of a coincidence to appeal for peace (read the
tweets from Sunday), a day before the motion was to be moved in Rajya Sabha. After Omar twitted that he is likely to be placed
under house arrest, he was able to tweet 6-7 times. Then there was silence for
2 days and now suddenly he is able to tweet again on 7th August. Any
government and especially Modi surely knows the power of social media. If they
wanted to arrest or detain the leaders from valley, there surely would have
been better ways to prevent social media communication and catch the leaders by
surprise. But that wasn’t the case. This points to a very strong possibility
that the leadership from the valley was informed prior-at least a few days, to
the bill being taken up in parliament, and they were either aligned or made to
fall in line. Everything else was a hogwash. The leaders were detained and they
continue to oppose, to save their political image and Shah kept cursing the
dynasties to justify the dilution of Article 370. As someone would say – “Saab
mile hue Hain ji!” – This time for a good reason of course!
Secondly,
I was keenly watching the proceedings in Rajya Sabha on Monday. There certainly
was turbulence when Shah introduced the bill. But what was surprising, was the
speed at which various political parties were able to quickly decide on their
position –whether to support, oppose or walkout! Normally, with a reasonable
majority, any bill would take 2-3 days at a minimum to be passed by either
house. And this is when there is a prior information of the bill being introduced,
giving political parties sufficient time to make up their mind. And here we
have an extremely important bill being introduced at 11 am and the parties
spell out their stance around 12 noon! Doesn’t that sound fishy? I mean really!
I would still have not thought about it if it were introduced in Lok Sabha. But
Rajya Sabha? Agreed that the government is in a much better state than it was
earlier, in terms of numbers and the parties supporting them. But still they
don’t have a majority and are dependent on non NDA parties. So to introduce
such a bill in Rajya Sabha without any prior intimation was a huge gamble. So
on one side, you have a government that plays this gamble and on the other side
we have almost all the political parties taking their stance – all in matter of
few hours while the house is in session and the government winning 120 – 62! A
fairy tale indeed! If you still don’t believe, check this – BSP supporting, TMC
and NCP abstaining! I mean what made them take these decisions? In reality, it
is highly likely that the leadership of most parties were informed and taken
into confidence. Yes, those who wanted to oppose, did end up opposing. But only
after the government ensuring that they had enough numbers to take this
through. At a minimum the government would have reached out to the key leaders
who played an instrumental role in supporting or abstaining! Again, for all the
criticism that the government is facing about arbitrary decision making, this
may have been more inclusive that what is made out to be. This is a speculation
of course, but you never know!
Thirdly,
and this may not be surprising, the government had indicated and or briefed all
the major global powers about the impeding resolution. This is evident from the
muted responses from various countries. While it is being told publicly that
the envoys were told after the fact, that it was a bill to improve the
governance and facilitate development in the state, nobody is going to believe
that a massive troop buildup is needed for the same! I mean they surely are
more intelligent than what the statements from MEA make them to be! So most definitely,
the key international players were taken into confidence and any post facto Pakistani
move taken into equation. In fact I have a very weird feeling that the whole ‘Kashmir
mediation’ episode was scripted to divert attention and Pakistan nicely played
into it. This does sound preposterous, but I won’t discount the theory given
the timing. So while one thought process is that the mediation offer and the
Taliban talk may have prompted the move, the other possibility is that the
mediation story itself was part of the whole plan. Whether China was in the
list of the select countries is a matter of speculation.
Net
net, in all likelihood this was a much more inclusive and coordinated effort
than what is made out to be. But we will never know what went on behind those
closed doors! – And for good reasons. Lastly, for all those who claim that they
would have supported the move but after taking all stakeholders into confidence
– aka, the JK assembly approving such a bill, how naïve are we? With 46 seats for
the Kashmir valley out of 87, this was never a possibility since nobody would
dare to support such a bill in assembly. Lastly, whether the changes to Article
370 would bring the intended results? There’s no quick answer. But one thing is
certainly true – You cannot continue to do same things and expect different results.
