Captain's innings

Remember the 1993 Hero cup semifinal vs South Africa? With five (or was it six?) runs required of the last over, there was immense pressure on the Indian team and particularly the front line bowlers. After deliberations that lasted infinity, to the utter astonishment of the thousands watching from the stands and millions over TV, the ball was given to Tendulkar ! Remember, Tendulkar was not ‘The Sachin Tendulkar’, back then. And even if he were, this was bowling, not batting. If you think I am talking of ‘grandpa’s times’, let’s talk about something ‘recent’. Remember when Joginder was asked to bowl the last over of the 2007 T20 world cup? Or for that matter, when Dhoni altered the batting order of the "winning combination" during the 2011 world cup? Or for that matter ….the numerous gambles of M.S Dhoni (oh and there are plenty of them in all formats)? Well I am going to stop here! Time for the younger generation to take over and talk about cricket!
Anyways, there are numerous such decisions that have given us unforgettable moments in cricket. There are also those moments where the outcome was contrary to our expectations and everybody from ‘experts’ to masses have blamed such decisions.  The narrative for such matches usually goes beyond the usual one “The boys played really well. The ball was coming on to the bat nicely. The running between the wickets was good. The lower order responded well. XXX played well and was striking the ball in the middle of the bat”. Or for that matter “We fielded well. The bowlers bowled a good line and length. Timely wickets helped. There was moisture in the field and the ball was swinging nicely”. There is one common factor in all these wins (or losses at times) .It is the captain. The captain in these cases has taken a decision beyond the usual. He is responsible for the decision and the direct consequences of it. Ever wondered what goes on in the captain’s mind while taking such decisions in a matter of seconds? We enjoy the win, celebrate and go to bed. The captain has to live with his decisions. Right or wrong. Success or failure. We all have been ‘captains of some ship’ or ‘some game’ at different points during our lives. So although, we have probably not faced the extreme stress that the cricket (or any sports) captains have to endure, we kind of know ‘how it feels’. If not anything, I am pretty sure you would have tried the stock markets or ‘hedged’ your studies trying to explore the ‘optional questions’ during exams. Each such decisions comes with its share of success and possible consequences of a failure.
Imagine a headline like – “20 soldiers martyred during cross border firing along the LOC” (for India would never accept a ‘surgical strike’ if it were a failure or partial success) or for that matter “40 Indian soldiers trying to infiltrate into Azad Kashmir killed by Pakistan Army” (headline form Pakistani newspapers). This of course is not imagination, but a very finite possibility! This very well could have been the headlines if the surgical strikes were not successful or for that matter partially successful. The risk was huge, the cost of failure was unthinkable. You could say that somebody was investing his entire political capital into this decision.  A failure would have meant multiple things. For one, it would have resulted in the loss of lives of Indian soldiers. The enemy would have been alerted, thereby making such strikes in the near future extremely difficult. Those who were already criticizing the government and the PM would have got a shot in the arm. Popularity of the PM would certainly have gone down considerably. Failure in their first ever ‘public’ strike (it would not have been public then. That’s another matter!)  would have had significant impact on the confidence of the security forces and the public at large. All the powers that be from across the globe would have come down running to ‘preach restraint’ to the Indians – the subtle message being, c’mon, it’s not your cup of tea.
Any decision tree analysis in the world would have favored not going with the strikes considering the political, economic risks and the possibilities of human casualties. The ‘bright’ side of the decision also was not a smooth sailing. There were to be adverse ramifications even of a successful operation. Possibly extreme, more violent ones. It is in context of these outcomes that the operations needs to be viewed. We had a very professional military, a well-established security structure and fairly competent intelligence agency. This was the case all along. At least for past few years. Capability was never an issue. Decisiveness was( and I don't mean to imply incompetence. There may have been strategic considerations as well).. Most PMs in the past stopped at this point- The consequences of failure or rather the dire consequences of success! The fact that the operation (or preemptive strikes as we prefer to call them) were executed flawlessly speaks volumes of how professional our military is. And they deserve all the kudos for this success. However, this could not have been possible without the captain of the ship. For daring to breach that line, for risking your political capital, for giving millions the sense of ‘pride’ and for pressing the ‘YES’ button,
                 TAKE A BOW MR. MODI! You deserve every bit of it !
                 THANK YOU!
This event is significant in yet another way.  For those, reasonably in the know of the Indian (or Pakistani) army, cross border skirmishes are not uncommon across the LOC. There have been instances of infiltration by the Pakistani army and also by the Indians. There could also have been instances of Special Forces used for some of these operations. Barring a few , most of the incidents were not in the public domain or reported as ‘ Unprovoked LOC firing’  For that matter, I still believe that ‘rumor’ from few days back which said India had crossed the LOC and killed 10 militants, was true. The difference is – This time India chose to go public with it.  While increasing public pressure to act would definitely played a role in this decision, there were certainly wider considerations. For one it was necessary to tell Pakistan and the world that we not only had the ability to do it, we now have the will to go ahead and the courage to come out in open and face the consequences.  That according to me is the biggest success of the operation. Something akin to going public with the Nuclear tests in 1998.
So – While the nation celebrates and stock markets get back on track and our enemies begin their nefarious plans, while your political opponents figure out new ways to get back at you, while Kejriwal continues with his ‘Modi rap’, while Pakistan continues to ‘use’ their nuclear weapons ( well the words ) every day, while Katju comes up with something stupid , while Bhakts continue to sing your praise( and possibly decide to erect a temple- I know you wouldn’t agree of course ) and while ‘sickulars’  find faults in your acts and decisions, while Mr Shah prepares for the next assembly battles and before you plan for your next foreign tour :)  …
You can chill out! Have a feast of Bhakri and Khichdi and enjoy the rest of your day! This is your 'Sourabh Ganguly' moment Mr. Modi. Whether you prefer to take your shirt off or not is entirely up to you! But I am pretty sure, there are many who would die for a glance of that ’56 inches of chest’!

Jai Hind.

Indo-Pak : The broken narrative

Every object continues in state of ‘rest or motion ‘unless a force acts on it- so we were taught. In simplistic terms, everything happens for a reason. If we broaden the scope of this statement from physics to a universal one, it would still hold true. ‘Everything happens for a reason’ .It’s just that we don’t happen to know the reason or at times cannot comprehend it.   The converse also is true –
‘Nothing happens without a reason!’
I am pretty sure, that apart from physicists, astronomers, cosmologists, politicians even foreign policy pundits must believe and accept this simple but powerful fact. I for sure have always believed in this. A small error or distraction in an otherwise coherent story says a lot and minutely observing such distractions can tell you if things have changed, if not necessarily, what has changed. Last year when there was a lot of bonhomie between the PMs of India and Pakistan (and I am stopping short of calling that bonhomie between the two countries), I had written about the same. The story was still incoherent but it seemed to be headed in a direction. At least peace seemed to be the ultimate objective.
A lot has happened since then. There have been NSA level talks albeit a surprise meeting at a ‘third country’ to avoid Media, Foreign secretary level talks, a surprise visit by the Indian PM for PM Sharif’s grand daughter’s wedding eve and the Pathankot terror attacks.  Surprisingly India acted very maturely even after the attacks and the official statement specifically talked about terror groups within Pakistan without directly blaming the Pakistan Govt. India even facilitated the visit of the investigative team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot and sought reciprocity, which was denied. That was like early this year. Things seem to have nosedived south since then. To the extent that currently the relations between India and Pakistan are at one of their lowest points in recent years.  The India PM has openly mention Baluchistan (more about that in a while) and Pakistan seems to be leaving no tables unturned to rake up and exploit the Kashmir unrest, while supporting it by all means.  My earlier post gives a perspective and reasons for the sudden surge in violence.
However, thinking further on this, it doesn’t seem to be a story started by the killing of Burhan Wani, fuelled by Pakistan and possibly China. So I may have been wrong in localizing it.  Although event starting with the killing of Wani till the current escalations may have been prompted by the NSG- South China sea factors, it looks like the whole narrative was scripted differently , the contours of which are coming out in open now.
Let’s start with the last major event in the series. The Indian PM mentioned Baluchistan in his Independence Day speech.  Apart from the popularity it got, the mention was a major foreign policy statement.  India had so far never even acknowledged any form of (moral, financial or otherwise) support for the Baloch moment, let alone any official statement.  While it was an unofficial ‘open’ secret that Indians were sympathetic to the Baloch cause, it was never a public statement. From that point to a state where the Indian PM mentions it in his I-day speech is definitely a big leap. Although, the PM merely ‘thanked’ the Baloch people for wishes, the B-word itself ruffled feathers within Pakistan and even China.  Now, the PM would not have done so without consulting all the relevant stakeholders.  For one, India may have developed enough ‘deep assets’ in the Baloch region. Earlier statements from the NSA seem to hint towards that direction. The arrest of an ‘Indian agent’ from Baluchistan also adds credence to the story. Whether the person was an Indian agent and if he was truly arrested from Baluchistan are matters left unanswered. But then even assuming that he was neither, there must be a ‘reason’ why Pakistan publicly exposed an Indian agent and that too accusing him of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan. And obviously to get things to a state where we can publicly espouse the cause takes good amount of time and money to build resources.  The ground work for this must have been going on for months and possibly years. It may not be a ‘Modi phenomenon’, but promoted by earlier governments as well. Net Net, the PMs Mention, although may have been camouflaged as a reaction to the Kashmir unrest, certainly is part of another narrative that was being developed all along. It is possible that the Indian side got enough confidence and also thought that the timing was ripe to go public.
It’s kind of a reversal in the chicken-egg story and may partly explain the sudden disruption since March –April. So was India politically and otherwise preparing for a ‘big push’ on Baluchistan?  Was it something that Pakistan realized (well that country doesn’t have a moral conscience, so we shouldn’t feel guilty –you know!) and led to the slump in relations? Instead of “India mentioning Baluchistan because of Kashmir unrest “, could the story possibly be “Pakistan causing unrest in Kashmir in retaliation to India’s grand design in Baluchistan “?  Nobody knows for a fact. But cannot be ruled out. To me, it kind of fits into the broken narrative –somehow.
Whether, if at all, India achieves any real geographical or political advantage by its involvement in Baluchistan, is a separate topic, which I will dwell upon later. It’s the beginning of a long drawn battle. I am pretty sure that neither Pakistan nor China are going to let us proceed with any sort of design , that easily .But for now, it suffices to say that it has ruffled enough feathers for both of our neighbors. That India may have been involved, was never hidden from the Chinese. But what would come as a surprise is – What is that prized possession that gave enough guts to the Indian leadership to make it public!  And why now!
So where will this really end? Another bloody spate of violence that both countries will have to experience? Another 'narrative' where people and issues are used as pawns to settle scores ?Or is it the will of the almighty to enable create circumstances so that the humans on both sides see rational and try to strive for peace? After all questions need to be answered in the same language to complete the test!
I don’t know the answer. But what I do know is –
Nothing happens without a reason!!

The Kashmir trap

Daily soaps now a days are getting interesting. While there is an overall storyline (or at least one believes there is), each episode or a set of episodes is driven by viewer’s response which are easy to capture courtesy social media. So just when dedicated viewers are getting dejected or bored by the usual ‘wins’ of the antagonists, our protagonists hand over a blow enough to rejuvenate  the spirits of viewers. So on goes the story with repetition of this sequence year after year! Moral of the story is (what I am trying to say! Not the moral of the television series! Nobody knows that!) -  A single story line doesn’t drive the series. Narratives are added based on external influences. And just in case you are wondering if I happen to watch any of these soaps- Well I do!
Now back to our topic.  Kashmir is simmering for the past month and more with several civilian and army casualties.  Life has been severely impacted due to the continuous curfew and unrest. It is hard to believe that this very place was ‘almost normal’ and safe for tourists until a couple of months back. So what caused this?  Simple answer is the killing (or martyrdom from the terrorist’s- yes that’s what I call them, perspective) of Burhan Wani. He was the face of the insurgency at least as far as social media is concerned and consequently popular. His death was bound to create an impact and some amount of the initial disturbance is certainly attributed to spontaneous response from his supporters in the valley.  But 40 days and on??  That’s ridiculous given that a huge amount of resources and money are required to manage such a prolonged movement.  The other simple answer- Well Pakistan is supporting the insurgency with unlimited financial, political and all other means possible. And Pakistan has ideologically (and even otherwise) always supported the Kashmiri cause. So thats kind of the story line.
But then here’s where the simple story line crumbles. Barring the extreme instances like 1989 and a few thereafter, there have been terrorists killed, captured in Kashmir all along.  Agreed, there have been reactions leading to disturbances, curfew, and condemnation by Pakistan. But this time, Pakistan seems to be going all out to complicate the situation and obviously making the most of it. It has pitched up the diplomatic efforts to escalate the Kashmir and even tried to involve UNHRC.  The question is why? What is making Pakistan go all out at this point?  And that too, against a backdrop of a goodwill visit by Modi in December last year, followed ( or preceded) by Foreign secretary level talks , NSA talks, India’s ‘restrained and mature’ response even after the Pathankot attacks . Intruding indeed!
Let’s now start to modify the usual ‘Pakistan supports independence of Kashmir ‘narrative to get to the current version of the story.   A few months back India made an all-out effort in its bid to get NSG membership and did not succeed.  Well, why India needs to do so is my basic question. But that’s for another discussion. So this bid as we know was effectively foiled by China.  While Pakistan has been making its own diplomatic efforts to prevent India from getting into NSG, it’s anybody’s guess where they would have landed, but for the effective blocking from ‘friend’ China.  Net net, the whole episode was a diplomatic failure for India and consequently a win for China/Pakistan.
Getting into a little more details of this whole NSG episode, we need to analyze the reasons (well real ones, not the official ones) for opposing India’s bid.  As for Pakistan, which was not even a party, the reason was simple – It has always sought parity with India in all forums. So Pakistan’s effort was not to ‘negate’ India’s bid directly, but to present it’s own case and try to dissuade India’s case by drawing analogy with its own. But either ways, the reasons for Pakistan’s opposition are simple – if I can’t, so can you not!.   What about China?  Well, contrary to beliefs of many, India does not figure out as significantly in China’s foreign policy as we think it does! What I mean is – Apart from the traditional rivalry and competition, China has no significant reason to block India’s NSG bid. They did back out of opposition in 2008 when India was given the waiver. So there was no reason for China to not back us twice. The support would not have been incoherent, since China did support in 2008.  Of course, there would have been price to pay for India in terms of diplomatic maneuvers and financial biddings etc. But it was not impossible. Chinese are pragmatic to that extent.  To turn down a personal request from the Indian PM to the Chinese President does warrant a very strong reason. And that reason is China’s friendship with Pakistan. In nutshell, China played the hard ball since it was covertly pushing its friend’s agenda and didn’t have anything worth its salt to gain from India to change its position.
Cut the crap now- You must be saying!. Well let’s do it .  So this guy Wani was killed on 8-July.  The initial violence as I earlier said was spontaneous. But then?   Well, Then came the ruling by the tribunal rejecting Bejing’s claims on 12-July!. Beijing tried to put a brave face and show that they are least concerned about the decision. But fact of the matter is –it matters. China, no matter how strong they are, are still far away from capturing ‘the other pole’ opposite to the USA. With majority of ASEAN nations against it (as far as the claim over South China Sea is concerned), China has very few friends on this topic.  To add to this, is the meeting of G20 leaders, which may lead to a huge diplomatic embarrassment for China if there are reactions from member nations on the ‘South China’ topic. China risks being isolated. This realization dawned the Chinese pretty early and even as they were officially rejecting the decision from Hague, the diplomatic outreach had already started. In comes India!!  There seems to be an effort to support India’s NSG bid  in return of buying its ‘silence’ over South China, or still better, India supporting a  ‘bilateral resolution of issues stance’ !.  So obviously, China is leaving Pakistan to fend on its own as far as the NSG opposition to India is concerned.
To add to this is a bit of geo-politics in Pakistan. The all-powerful Gen Sharif is set to retire in a few months.People are already gossiping within the Pakistani establishment about a possible military coup. Now that the US has stopped financially supporting them , there’s nothing to lose for the military. Also, PM Sharif has been on the receiving end since his name popped up in the Wikileaks cables.  So a diplomatic failure on NSG at this point would be a death knell for him.
So what does Pakistan do? Well the usual narrative.  Rake up the Kashmir issue, try and create a war like situation. Use Nuclear blackmail , enough to get the western governments worried and use the whole situation to prevent India’s NSG bid.  The other angle is that this plan could be well aided by the Chinese . Since they are now required to ‘officially’ negotiate with India, there’s no harm in opening a ‘second line’ with plausible deniability!.
Net Net, the current crisis are an attempt to drag India into a ‘India-Pakistan’ dual and in the process create enough fear to kill India’s NSG bid. Not to mention, all other fallouts of the Kashmir violence are a byproduct and icing on the cake for Pakistan.
India needs to be careful and guard against falling into this trap. So for all those jubilant minds ( well PM Modi mentioned Balochistan and POK in his I-day speech !),  NSG membership and Energy sufficiency are more important and achievable at this juncture than freeing up  pieces of Pakistan !

A billion shades

As I begin to write this, my head reels -A dilemma that refuses to resolve. Well not really a dilemma. Dilemma is binary- this or that, right or wrong, plain 2 dimensional problem. Simple.  You can either be right or wrong. Is there a word in English called multilemma? Something that depicts the multi-dimensional chaos of the human mind?  The uncertainty of represented facts, or the interpretations of it from multiple directions. May be-May be not.  As much as I try to simplify things and try to represent them on a 2 dimensional plane, they get distorted beyond recognition. Is it really that complicated to have a two dimensional view of a multi-dimensional entity? Or is it that I am over complicating things?  Trying to imaging multiple dimensions when only two exist, or may be none exist! May be- May be not.  Also, Am I the only one with such questions? Are there others like me? Are they even aware? May be- May be not. For some time now, I have heard myself say these words a million times – May be –May be not.
Needless to say, I am talking about the current political situation in the country. Frankly speaking, the situation is neither a ‘current’ phenomenon nor just political. It is slowly creeping into the basic fabric of our society. Or maybe it was already present, just being revived. Either ways, the happenings make one feel agonizing, at the very least. I went through the cycle of disbelief, disillusionment, pain, anger, exhaustion, confusion, agony and anything that you can add to the mix. Stopped writing (not that anybody cared, except my kid who got that extra time with me ! ).  A number of people, when touched upon the topic asked the same question- What’s going on. With an exasperated tone of course.  Most were apolitical, may be a little right leaning- people who possibly may have voted for the BJP due to varied reasons and expectations. (‘may have’ because you don’t ask one his voting preferences).  What’s going on? Honestly I have no answer.  Or may be many answers. Answers that defy the established norms of our thinking barriers. Who will listen? Who will believe? Well may be people know it, just that there’s been selective amnesia. Or – May be not.
From the very beginning, we have been taught the concept of antithesis. Good or evil, right or wrong, true or false, gods and demons, heroes and villains, tormentors and victims, Black or White. So if one exists, or you believe it exists, the other has to.  There is no way it cannot- we are told. So most of us brought up with a version of our own goods and evils, gods and anti-gods, white and black find the kaleidoscope a confusing place.  What color should I call it if my glasses are red? Or green for that matter? Should I wear glasses? What if I cannot see clearly?  So there is a color of your glasses, the color of the object, seen from a colorful kaleidoscope against a bright colored background in a room with colored lights!  The ultimate color? Nobody knows and different for everybody. Yet we are told that it has to be black or white. The Kaleidoscope, we are told doesn’t allow for shades of grey. Each has to choose their white and live with it. You are disowned if you deviate, revolt or question.
The First white - So a political party, which has the largest number of seats , in fact the highest since past 30 years, is – we are told is communal, anti dalits , anti-Christians , anti-Muslims, anti-farmers, anti-Students, anti-Women ( well somebody wearing a saffron colored shirt opposed them in Shani Shingnapur remember ? )  . So we have a ruling party that’s against a whopping 70-80 % of the population. Not to mention anti-Pakistan, anti-China, anti- Marxist, anti-Secular, anti- whatever happens with whosoever in the country.  In fact, the leader of an opposition party is so desperate to call them anti-XXX that he espouses the cause of the very person, whom they hanged, when in power!.  And whom is the ruling party supporting really? – Well Brahmanical way. A huge 2% of the population!  Astonishing because even the most brutal dictatorship cannot survive with that minuscule a support!. Businessmen –Second answer!. We must surely be living in the Cuba of 60s where support to business is termed as an act of treachery.  Similarly , an organization that have been in existence for past 90+ years under the British rule followed by prolonged single party rule in the country-and surprisingly not banned all the while, is branded a terrorist organization and compared to some of the most dreaded terror groups in the world . They spread hatred it seems!  Why will the ruling dispensation try to destabilize their own government by creating these unnecessary controversies? ! Why? Well don’t question why. Black or white! Follow George W Bush. You are with us or you are with the enemy!
The other white- We are being told that the entire universe is conspiring against the government of present day, the leader in particular. Foreign governments (the list varies), NGOs, of course the opposition parties, not to mention the dear friends, the media. Reason? Well we are progressing so fast that some people and countries have motion sickness and cannot bear it. So they are using each and every means at disposal to stop the train- it seems! So, most of the opposition parties and their leaders qualify to be traitors. Anybody with a ‘communist’ label is an anti-national by default. In fact the genealogy of one of the largest party is filled with traitors and anti-nationals, we are told. This is the party that ruled for most part of our post independence phase, won 3 wars (well lost one as well!)  And was responsible for (in whichever manner) where we stand today as a nation. But don’t ask. Black or White. Choose your’s.
Black and White- Media- used as a pillow during the night and a punching bag during the day! Their color changes on daily basis.  The ruling dispensation (or at least their friends) believe that the media (their term is MSM) is biased against their leader and aligns with whosoever conspires to get the government into trouble. It seems most media houses are foreign funded by external intelligence agencies or business houses.  Why cannot the government reign in these forces is not answered. If the media is controlled by external forces, the opposition parties driven by ‘external forces’, what the hell is the government of India doing all this while? That part is conveniently not answered.  What benefit will majority of the media derive by being anti-government (as is projected), besides improving TRPs is not discussed. Don’t talk about it. Black or White.
On part of the media, some definitely have a pathological hatred towards the ruling dispensation- the leader in particular. So apart from trying to settle personal scores, the media thrives on anarchy. Anarchy drives TRPs- simple. So it was the media which publicized the Anna Hazare moment and the same people who have publicized the JNU episode.  Besides, they are not merely the messengers of information. But creators of stories. There is no ethical angle here. That industry can no longer afford it. Whose side is the media on? Well, media is on their own side, shifting partners as per the convenience and TRPs.  Why does the media report in a particular way? Don’t ask why. Black or White!
Wondering if ever,one were to look out of the kaleidoscope to witness the beautiful colors around. Multiple colors and numerous shades …over a billion of them, actually!
This land will be a beautiful place then….colored …not black or white.

Will that happen? May be – May be not ……

Jai Hind!