Reverse Swing

                Each year, of course barring the ones when the relationship between the two neighbors is going through a good patch, June to September is the period when maximum number of terrorists try to infiltrate into India from Pakistan, actively aided by the Pakistani army. The idea is to cross the border and go incognito for the next few weeks until winter sets in and then foment trouble in the valley. It is very difficult to cross the border once winter sets in, particularly when it starts snowing. Understanding this, the Indian security forces are on high vigil during this period. There are a maximum number of cross border firings and a maximum number of terrorist encounters during the summer months. On the contrary, there is much less infiltration and cross border skirmishes during peak winter months. This year there was a noticeable reduction in infiltration attempts as claimed by the Indian army itself in July. One of the most important reasons supposedly was the sword of FTAF hanging over Pakistan’s head. Moreover the Indian security forces have been extremely successful in identifying and eliminating terrorists for the past few years and this year in particular. So arguably, Kashmir valley was enjoying one of the most peaceful phase in recent times. With the lower infiltration, the winter was also looking to be a rather peaceful one.

                Suddenly the government of India announced the abrogation of article 370 and all hell broke loose. We are now hearing about thousands of terrorists either having crossed the border or waiting to cross at the earliest opportunity. Moreover, with the G7 submit, UN General Assembly planned in August-September timeframe , it only meant that the government of India had to put in double the diplomatic effort to justify their action compared to what would have been required say in winter. So then the question is – Why did the government of India rush through the abrogation when the strategic time to do so would have been the months of winter? The winter session of parliament to be specific.  Make no mistake- The government did rush through the implementation. Although the high level contours of the plan were in place long before, the actual implementation was a hush hush affair starting probably immediately after the new government took office or sometime around end of June/early July. This was clear from the fact that the Amaranth yatri’s and tourists were rushed back in a matter of days. Besides additional forces were deployed in an expedited manner. For the level of secrecy that this kind of operation demands, and what the government maintained, exposing the rapid deployment of security forces was a risky move. They could have very well handled it in a very phased and prolonged manner to avoid suspicion. So the question basically is – Why did the government choose this time?

                For that one has to look westwards. The US has been in negotiations with the Taliban for the past few months and was seen to be inching closer to a deal. Of course the POTUS has domestic compulsions to pull back troops from Afghanistan before 2020 which only meant that the US representative Zalmay Khalizad would aggressively try to broker a deal to meet the end. One of the biggest losers of such a so called peace deal was India. India has consistently maintained the stance that there cannot be a peace deal with Taliban and that such a deal cannot be brokered without the involvement of the Afghan government. Given that India has good relations with the Afghan government meant that India would have stake and levers in such negotiation attempts. However Pakistan, which was playing its cards close to the chest, successfully managed to keep the Afghan government and thereby India off the table. A return of Taliban to the center of power in Afghanistan spelt doom for India’s policy. For one, they would lose all the lever and goodwill earned by two decades of hard work and contribution to the Afghan society. Secondly, that would expand the strategic depth of Pakistan’s influence and consequently reduce India’s traction across the region. Thirdly, there were all indications that Pakistan would use their hold over the Taliban and the newfound proximity to the western powers, to get Kashmir back in focus. This was evident from Trump’s ‘offer’ of mediation in Kashmir.  Given the exchange of tweets between Trump and Imran Khan earlier this year, a visit by the Pakistan Prime Minister to the US was deemed impossible in the first place, forget about the POTUS ‘mediating’ in Kashmir. But within a matter of months, the scenario had changed. Considering the possibility of a power transfer to Taliban, the Pakistani establishment would have been free to focus on Kashmir and foment more trouble. Add to this the fact that China would take over as the president of FTAF in October which makes things easier for Pakistan. So things were about to turn good for Pakistan in coming months. The lull in infiltration during summers was not due to fear of reprisal but more a silence before the storm.    

                While Modi was combing the nation with his rallies, the Indian strategic community and spy agencies were keeping a close watch on the events in Doha, Islamabad and Washington DC. The naming of Masood Azar as a global terrorist by the UNSC was pursued as a victory by many in India (and appropriately used by the ruling party to show ‘Modi’ power), a few of our strategic brains were bewildered by China’s move, particularly at the time when elections were being held in India, which meant, at least in theory there could be an alternate government in India. They soon realized that it was a ploy to keep the Indians occupied in the false sense of victory and keep them unwary. As the summers approached, the Doha negotiations gathered momentum. Meanwhile other nations like Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey too started actively involving themselves in different format of negotiations, obviously to pick their share of pie from the war ravaged nation. All, except India. In ironical, but unsurprising turn of events, one of the biggest benefactor of the Afghan people since past two decades was turning out to be one of the biggest losers in the process – strategically, diplomatically and economically. Besides, a deal with Taliban would not only expel India out of Afghanistan, it would also bring Pakistan out of the global diplomatic isolation that had been a result of a carefully crafted narrative by the Indian think tank.

Something had to be done –fast

                The Indians swung into action. The move was blasphemous and diplomatically untenable. But then diplomacy is the art of making the impossible –possible. Fortunately, the government had a renewed and stronger mandate which meant that things could be taken care on the domestic front. Newer players in the upper house meant that there was room for such a move. The government moved ahead and abrogated Article 370 along with creation of two union territories. Pakistan was caught by surprise and understandably furious. Therein started the diplomatic duel between the two and China unfortunately (I confidently say it was an unfortunate step which they would regret soon) played a wrong move by attempting to take the issue to the UN. The Indians were swift to thwart such a move and quickly went on offensive. Between the PM, the FM, the RM, the President and the NSA they would have connected with the leadership of at least over a hundred countries in a span of two to three weeks. Meanwhile the security forces were doing a good job at keeping the valley mostly free of violence. This ensured that barring the usual sermons about human rights, there was nothing much to point fingers to. Also the narrative of ‘right to life overrides others’ helped justify the restrictions which were being phased out. All along, the Pakistanis were trying all the tricks of the trade to get world attention. Unable to foment trouble in Kashmir, they escalated violence in Afghanistan, out of frustration, to get the US to influence India. And then the unthinkable happened- The US called off the negotiations with Taliban.  The abrogation, while an accomplishment in itself, was timed to thwart the Taliban deal and the Indians seem to have succeeded in the same. It would be overzealous to think that the Indian move alone was responsible for calling off the Taliban talks, but certainly it would have played a significant role in rattling the Pakistani think tank.  They say, Diplomacy neither has a beginning nor an end. So there may still be attempts to review the Taliban talks overtly or covertly. But for now its

India -1

Pakistan- zero

Breaking of 370- The inside story

               Narendra Modi and his team surely know the art of keeping secrets and at times building the necessary suspense. Be it the surprise visit to Pakistan in Dec 2015 or the famous ‘Mitron’ of 8^th Nov 2016, Modi has consistently delivered on his surprises! Not to mention the surgical strikes and then again the air strikes thereby doing a ‘gotcha’ to Pakistan not once, but twice! If somebody were to believe that Modi is good as a T20 or a one day player, he demonstrated otherwise by playing a patient and long drawn game finally resulting in virtual decimation of Article 370. By now it’s in public domain how the whole thing started with BJP forming a coalition government with the PDP and then withdrawing support at an ‘opportune’ time in June 2018. After this any attempts to form a government were ‘sabotaged’ leading to a Governor’s rule. The state elections were not conducted alongside the Lok Sabha elections with specific purpose –as we know now. The action plan was ready well before the commencement of election process in Feb 2019 and all the players swung into action right after the government took charge in May 2019. From that point on, all the administrative process was completed in expeditious manner with utmost secrecy such that nobody had a wimp of what was about to come till the very last moment.

                Of course, the most important aspect of this plan was the ‘how’- the legal aspect. For long it was believed that fiddling with Article 370 was almost impossible for 2 reasons – 1. Abrogation of article 370 required changes to the constitution – an area too sensitive for any political party to venture 2.  Any changes to Article 370 need to be approved by the Legislative assembly (Constituent Assembly in the original article). Given the composition of J&K assembly this was virtually impossible to achieve. Such was the confidence that it led to a prominent leader from the state arrogantly claiming that Modi cannot touch article 370 even if he came to power 10 times!  Well, he was soon to be proved wrong. The legal team behind this plan indeed outsmarted everyone. They beat the article by using one of the clauses in the article. So without the need to abrogate, article 370 was rendered defunct. This will surely be challenged in the courts. But for now, there doesn’t seem anything illegal in it.

                However, for all the visible perfection and secrecy that the government demonstrated in planning and executing this, there’s more than what meets the public eye. I base this statement on three or four aspects that were very noticeable. Firstly, the widely believed theory that the regional leadership of J&K – namely the Abdullah’s and the Mufti’s were taken by surprise may be wrong. If one looks at the sequence of events, namely the meeting of the Abdullah’s with the PM couple of days before the unfolding of events in parliament, the all party meeting in Srinagar on the day prior, there definitely seem to be something fishy. Firstly, why would the Abdullah’s want to meet the PM knowing that the massive troop buildup was for some ‘not so desirable’ reasons? Convincing or requesting the PM? Are you kidding? Secondly, why would the PM even grant them audience?  Thirdly, if the government could put the leaders under detention from Sunday mid-night, why not a few hours earlier so as to prevent the all party meeting? Aren’t these leaders threat enough that they were put under detention from Sunday night? So why allow the meeting? Also if we closely look at the tweets, it is very surprising that the leaders from the valley almost knew that something terrible was to happen and they appeal for peace. Assuming that they may have twitted due to the ongoing troop buildup, then it’s too much of a coincidence to appeal for peace (read the tweets from Sunday), a day before the motion was to be moved in Rajya Sabha.  After Omar twitted that he is likely to be placed under house arrest, he was able to tweet 6-7 times. Then there was silence for 2 days and now suddenly he is able to tweet again on 7^th August. Any government and especially Modi surely knows the power of social media. If they wanted to arrest or detain the leaders from valley, there surely would have been better ways to prevent social media communication and catch the leaders by surprise. But that wasn’t the case. This points to a very strong possibility that the leadership from the valley was informed prior-at least a few days, to the bill being taken up in parliament, and they were either aligned or made to fall in line. Everything else was a hogwash. The leaders were detained and they continue to oppose, to save their political image and Shah kept cursing the dynasties to justify the dilution of Article 370. As someone would say – “Saab mile hue Hain ji!” – This time for a good reason of course!

                Secondly, I was keenly watching the proceedings in Rajya Sabha on Monday. There certainly was turbulence when Shah introduced the bill. But what was surprising, was the speed at which various political parties were able to quickly decide on their position –whether to support, oppose or walkout! Normally, with a reasonable majority, any bill would take 2-3 days at a minimum to be passed by either house. And this is when there is a prior information of the bill being introduced, giving political parties sufficient time to make up their mind. And here we have an extremely important bill being introduced at 11 am and the parties spell out their stance around 12 noon! Doesn’t that sound fishy? I mean really! I would still have not thought about it if it were introduced in Lok Sabha. But Rajya Sabha? Agreed that the government is in a much better state than it was earlier, in terms of numbers and the parties supporting them. But still they don’t have a majority and are dependent on non NDA parties. So to introduce such a bill in Rajya Sabha without any prior intimation was a huge gamble. So on one side, you have a government that plays this gamble and on the other side we have almost all the political parties taking their stance – all in matter of few hours while the house is in session and the government winning 120 – 62! A fairy tale indeed! If you still don’t believe, check this – BSP supporting, TMC and NCP abstaining! I mean what made them take these decisions? In reality, it is highly likely that the leadership of most parties were informed and taken into confidence. Yes, those who wanted to oppose, did end up opposing. But only after the government ensuring that they had enough numbers to take this through. At a minimum the government would have reached out to the key leaders who played an instrumental role in supporting or abstaining! Again, for all the criticism that the government is facing about arbitrary decision making, this may have been more inclusive that what is made out to be. This is a speculation of course, but you never know!

                Thirdly, and this may not be surprising, the government had indicated and or briefed all the major global powers about the impeding resolution. This is evident from the muted responses from various countries. While it is being told publicly that the envoys were told after the fact, that it was a bill to improve the governance and facilitate development in the state, nobody is going to believe that a massive troop buildup is needed for the same! I mean they surely are more intelligent than what the statements from MEA make them to be! So most definitely, the key international players were taken into confidence and any post facto Pakistani move taken into equation. In fact I have a very weird feeling that the whole ‘Kashmir mediation’ episode was scripted to divert attention and Pakistan nicely played into it. This does sound preposterous, but I won’t discount the theory given the timing. So while one thought process is that the mediation offer and the Taliban talk may have prompted the move, the other possibility is that the mediation story itself was part of the whole plan. Whether China was in the list of the select countries is a matter of speculation.

                Net net, in all likelihood this was a much more inclusive and coordinated effort than what is made out to be. But we will never know what went on behind those closed doors! – And for good reasons. Lastly, for all those who claim that they would have supported the move but after taking all stakeholders into confidence – aka, the JK assembly approving such a bill, how naïve are we? With 46 seats for the Kashmir valley out of 87, this was never a possibility since nobody would dare to support such a bill in assembly. Lastly, whether the changes to Article 370 would bring the intended results? There’s no quick answer. But one thing is certainly true – You cannot continue to do same things and expect different results.

2019 - The end game

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